Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making
Most scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical de...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Tübingen University
2009-10-01
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| Series: | Intergenerational Justice Review |
| Online Access: | https://igjr.org/ojs/index.php/igjr/article/view/492 |
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| _version_ | 1823861078703996928 |
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| author | Rafaela Hillerbrand |
| author_facet | Rafaela Hillerbrand |
| author_sort | Rafaela Hillerbrand |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Most scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical decision making. It is shown how common decision approaches based on the precautionary principle fail to adequately deal with uncertainties as they arise in climate modeling. I argue that with regards to climate change, unquantified uncertainties can neither be ignored in decision making nor be reduced to quantified ones by assigning subjective probabilities. This distinguishes the ethical problems associated with climate change from other problems regarding energy supply and demand like, for example, those associated with nuclear power. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-083e7ea283e8460e97dd0f2dceec5886 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2190-6335 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2009-10-01 |
| publisher | Tübingen University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Intergenerational Justice Review |
| spelling | doaj-art-083e7ea283e8460e97dd0f2dceec58862025-02-10T05:00:43ZengTübingen UniversityIntergenerational Justice Review2190-63352009-10-013Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision MakingRafaela Hillerbrand0RWTH AachenMost scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical decision making. It is shown how common decision approaches based on the precautionary principle fail to adequately deal with uncertainties as they arise in climate modeling. I argue that with regards to climate change, unquantified uncertainties can neither be ignored in decision making nor be reduced to quantified ones by assigning subjective probabilities. This distinguishes the ethical problems associated with climate change from other problems regarding energy supply and demand like, for example, those associated with nuclear power.https://igjr.org/ojs/index.php/igjr/article/view/492 |
| spellingShingle | Rafaela Hillerbrand Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making Intergenerational Justice Review |
| title | Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making |
| title_full | Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making |
| title_fullStr | Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making |
| title_short | Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making |
| title_sort | epistemic uncertainties in climate predictions a challenge for practical decision making |
| url | https://igjr.org/ojs/index.php/igjr/article/view/492 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rafaelahillerbrand epistemicuncertaintiesinclimatepredictionsachallengeforpracticaldecisionmaking |