An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern Africa
The high spatial variability of precipitation, heightened frequency of droughts and concomitant increases in exposure to water stress across southern Africa due to climate change, presents significant challenges for sugarcane production and the regional sugarcane production value chain. While produc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Agriculture and Food Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666154324003855 |
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| author | S. Ngcobo G. Jewitt T.R. Hill E. Archer |
| author_facet | S. Ngcobo G. Jewitt T.R. Hill E. Archer |
| author_sort | S. Ngcobo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The high spatial variability of precipitation, heightened frequency of droughts and concomitant increases in exposure to water stress across southern Africa due to climate change, presents significant challenges for sugarcane production and the regional sugarcane production value chain. While production has intensified in the past few decades, yields have declined due to increased climatic variability and agronomic management approaches. Increased precipitation variability has enhanced sugarcane vulnerability to water stress and is likely to negatively affect yields. Combining crop simulations and relationships between sugarcane water use and observed rainfall, we introduce a crop productivity ratio (CPR) which assesses sugarcane water stress for six sugarcane mills across southern Africa. The CPR and simulation results were used to assess the adaptation potential or ‘space’ for mill areas that have varying rates of exposure and abilities to adapt to water stress. Simulation results were used to determine the long-term adaption potential of mill areas and to surmise the causes of yield declines. The results were used to offer recommendations to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance adaptation to water stress. We conclude that the amplification of inter-annual precipitation variability will enhance the exposure of sugarcane to water stress and require adaptation interventions. Adapting to external shocks is a multifaceted exercise that requires a holistic approach that includes every aspect of the sugarcane value chain. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-083a58e3d6d249a0a66c1ca3d1a77917 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2666-1543 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Agriculture and Food Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-083a58e3d6d249a0a66c1ca3d1a779172025-08-20T01:56:41ZengElsevierJournal of Agriculture and Food Research2666-15432024-12-011810134810.1016/j.jafr.2024.101348An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern AfricaS. Ngcobo0G. Jewitt1T.R. Hill2E. Archer3Department of Hydrology, Centre for Water Resources Research, School of Agriculture, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg Campus, King Edward Avenue, Scottsville, 3209, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa; Corresponding author.Department Water Resources and Ecosystems, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, PO Box 3015, 2601DA, Delft, the Netherlands; Water Management, Civil Engineering & Geosciences, TU Delft, PO Box 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, the NetherlandsDiscipline of Geography, School of Agriculture, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg Campus, King Edward Avenue, Scottsville, Pietermaritzburg, 3209, South AfricaDepartment of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Hatfield, 0028, South AfricaThe high spatial variability of precipitation, heightened frequency of droughts and concomitant increases in exposure to water stress across southern Africa due to climate change, presents significant challenges for sugarcane production and the regional sugarcane production value chain. While production has intensified in the past few decades, yields have declined due to increased climatic variability and agronomic management approaches. Increased precipitation variability has enhanced sugarcane vulnerability to water stress and is likely to negatively affect yields. Combining crop simulations and relationships between sugarcane water use and observed rainfall, we introduce a crop productivity ratio (CPR) which assesses sugarcane water stress for six sugarcane mills across southern Africa. The CPR and simulation results were used to assess the adaptation potential or ‘space’ for mill areas that have varying rates of exposure and abilities to adapt to water stress. Simulation results were used to determine the long-term adaption potential of mill areas and to surmise the causes of yield declines. The results were used to offer recommendations to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance adaptation to water stress. We conclude that the amplification of inter-annual precipitation variability will enhance the exposure of sugarcane to water stress and require adaptation interventions. Adapting to external shocks is a multifaceted exercise that requires a holistic approach that includes every aspect of the sugarcane value chain.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666154324003855Water stressSugarcane productionCrop productivity ratioVulnerabilityAdaptation |
| spellingShingle | S. Ngcobo G. Jewitt T.R. Hill E. Archer An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern Africa Journal of Agriculture and Food Research Water stress Sugarcane production Crop productivity ratio Vulnerability Adaptation |
| title | An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern Africa |
| title_full | An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern Africa |
| title_fullStr | An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern Africa |
| title_short | An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern Africa |
| title_sort | assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress southern africa |
| topic | Water stress Sugarcane production Crop productivity ratio Vulnerability Adaptation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666154324003855 |
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