Evapotranspiration Prediction Method Based on K-Means Clustering and QPSO-MKELM Model

This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy of reference evapotranspiration under limited meteorological factors. Based on the commonly recommended PSO-ELM model for ET<sub>0</sub> prediction and addressing its limitations, an improved QPSO algorithm and multiple kernel functions...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Chuansheng Zhang, Minglai Yang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-03-01
Series:Applied Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/7/3530
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849730939167440896
author Chuansheng Zhang
Minglai Yang
author_facet Chuansheng Zhang
Minglai Yang
author_sort Chuansheng Zhang
collection DOAJ
description This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy of reference evapotranspiration under limited meteorological factors. Based on the commonly recommended PSO-ELM model for ET<sub>0</sub> prediction and addressing its limitations, an improved QPSO algorithm and multiple kernel functions are introduced. Additionally, a novel evapotranspiration prediction model, Kmeans-QPSO-MKELM, is proposed, incorporating K-means clustering to estimate the daily evapotranspiration in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, China. In the input selection process, based on the variance and correlation coefficients of various meteorological factors, eight input models are proposed, attempting to incorporate the sine and cosine values of the date. The new model is then subjected to ablation and comparison experiments. Ablation experiment results show that introducing K-means clustering improves the model’s running speed, while the improved QPSO algorithm and the introduction of multiple kernel functions enhance the model’s accuracy. The improvement brought by introducing multiple kernel functions was especially significant when wind speed was included. Comparison experiment results indicate that the new model’s prediction accuracy is significantly higher than all other comparison models, especially after including date sine and cosine values in the input. The new model’s running speed is only slower than the RF model. Therefore, the Kmeans-QPSO-MKELM model, using date sine and cosine values as inputs, provides a fast and accurate new approach for predicting evapotranspiration.
format Article
id doaj-art-07f6bc68529c4d988705e643dff97e4e
institution DOAJ
issn 2076-3417
language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Applied Sciences
spelling doaj-art-07f6bc68529c4d988705e643dff97e4e2025-08-20T03:08:43ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-03-01157353010.3390/app15073530Evapotranspiration Prediction Method Based on K-Means Clustering and QPSO-MKELM ModelChuansheng Zhang0Minglai Yang1School of Railway Transportation, Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 201418, ChinaSchool of Railway Transportation, Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 201418, ChinaThis study aims to improve the prediction accuracy of reference evapotranspiration under limited meteorological factors. Based on the commonly recommended PSO-ELM model for ET<sub>0</sub> prediction and addressing its limitations, an improved QPSO algorithm and multiple kernel functions are introduced. Additionally, a novel evapotranspiration prediction model, Kmeans-QPSO-MKELM, is proposed, incorporating K-means clustering to estimate the daily evapotranspiration in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, China. In the input selection process, based on the variance and correlation coefficients of various meteorological factors, eight input models are proposed, attempting to incorporate the sine and cosine values of the date. The new model is then subjected to ablation and comparison experiments. Ablation experiment results show that introducing K-means clustering improves the model’s running speed, while the improved QPSO algorithm and the introduction of multiple kernel functions enhance the model’s accuracy. The improvement brought by introducing multiple kernel functions was especially significant when wind speed was included. Comparison experiment results indicate that the new model’s prediction accuracy is significantly higher than all other comparison models, especially after including date sine and cosine values in the input. The new model’s running speed is only slower than the RF model. Therefore, the Kmeans-QPSO-MKELM model, using date sine and cosine values as inputs, provides a fast and accurate new approach for predicting evapotranspiration.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/7/3530evapotranspirationmachine learningprediction modelsQuantum Particle Swarm Optimizationmulti-kernel extreme learning machineK-means clustering
spellingShingle Chuansheng Zhang
Minglai Yang
Evapotranspiration Prediction Method Based on K-Means Clustering and QPSO-MKELM Model
Applied Sciences
evapotranspiration
machine learning
prediction models
Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization
multi-kernel extreme learning machine
K-means clustering
title Evapotranspiration Prediction Method Based on K-Means Clustering and QPSO-MKELM Model
title_full Evapotranspiration Prediction Method Based on K-Means Clustering and QPSO-MKELM Model
title_fullStr Evapotranspiration Prediction Method Based on K-Means Clustering and QPSO-MKELM Model
title_full_unstemmed Evapotranspiration Prediction Method Based on K-Means Clustering and QPSO-MKELM Model
title_short Evapotranspiration Prediction Method Based on K-Means Clustering and QPSO-MKELM Model
title_sort evapotranspiration prediction method based on k means clustering and qpso mkelm model
topic evapotranspiration
machine learning
prediction models
Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization
multi-kernel extreme learning machine
K-means clustering
url https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/7/3530
work_keys_str_mv AT chuanshengzhang evapotranspirationpredictionmethodbasedonkmeansclusteringandqpsomkelmmodel
AT minglaiyang evapotranspirationpredictionmethodbasedonkmeansclusteringandqpsomkelmmodel