Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
Abstract The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a critical concern, but understanding is limited by short instrumental records and low-resolution prehistoric data. Here, we present the first daily-resolution proxy data for investigating prehistoric TC activity, using a 12-ye...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01100-1 |
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| author | Nanyu Zhao Hong Yan Ge Shi Fan Luo Tao Han Chengcheng Liu John Dodson |
| author_facet | Nanyu Zhao Hong Yan Ge Shi Fan Luo Tao Han Chengcheng Liu John Dodson |
| author_sort | Nanyu Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a critical concern, but understanding is limited by short instrumental records and low-resolution prehistoric data. Here, we present the first daily-resolution proxy data for investigating prehistoric TC activity, using a 12-year growth rate record of a fossil Tridacna shell (circa 3 ka BP) from the northern South China Sea (NSCS). By analyzing temporal patterns in the proxy data, we derived monthly TC frequency estimates. While modern TC frequency in the NSCS peaks in autumn (September–October), our results showed that TCs at 3 ka BP occurred more frequently in summer (June–July–August), with approximately 15% higher frequency than present. Combined with paleoclimate records, we suggested that this seasonal shift and increased frequency were likely linked to the relatively northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which provided favourable conditions for TC formation and development. Our findings imply that future warming would contribute to earlier TC seasons and increased TC frequency in the NSCS. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0674d64e18a648b2badb773a72ce40fe |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-0674d64e18a648b2badb773a72ce40fe2025-08-20T02:06:21ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-06-01811810.1038/s41612-025-01100-1Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shellsNanyu Zhao0Hong Yan1Ge Shi2Fan Luo3Tao Han4Chengcheng Liu5John Dodson6State Key Laboratory of Loess and Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Loess and Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesXi’an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment ResearchXi’an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment ResearchState Key Laboratory of Loess and Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesXi’an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment ResearchSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South WalesAbstract The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a critical concern, but understanding is limited by short instrumental records and low-resolution prehistoric data. Here, we present the first daily-resolution proxy data for investigating prehistoric TC activity, using a 12-year growth rate record of a fossil Tridacna shell (circa 3 ka BP) from the northern South China Sea (NSCS). By analyzing temporal patterns in the proxy data, we derived monthly TC frequency estimates. While modern TC frequency in the NSCS peaks in autumn (September–October), our results showed that TCs at 3 ka BP occurred more frequently in summer (June–July–August), with approximately 15% higher frequency than present. Combined with paleoclimate records, we suggested that this seasonal shift and increased frequency were likely linked to the relatively northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which provided favourable conditions for TC formation and development. Our findings imply that future warming would contribute to earlier TC seasons and increased TC frequency in the NSCS.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01100-1 |
| spellingShingle | Nanyu Zhao Hong Yan Ge Shi Fan Luo Tao Han Chengcheng Liu John Dodson Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells |
| title_full | Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells |
| title_fullStr | Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells |
| title_short | Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells |
| title_sort | prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the south china sea evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01100-1 |
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