Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells

Abstract The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a critical concern, but understanding is limited by short instrumental records and low-resolution prehistoric data. Here, we present the first daily-resolution proxy data for investigating prehistoric TC activity, using a 12-ye...

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Main Authors: Nanyu Zhao, Hong Yan, Ge Shi, Fan Luo, Tao Han, Chengcheng Liu, John Dodson
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01100-1
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author Nanyu Zhao
Hong Yan
Ge Shi
Fan Luo
Tao Han
Chengcheng Liu
John Dodson
author_facet Nanyu Zhao
Hong Yan
Ge Shi
Fan Luo
Tao Han
Chengcheng Liu
John Dodson
author_sort Nanyu Zhao
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a critical concern, but understanding is limited by short instrumental records and low-resolution prehistoric data. Here, we present the first daily-resolution proxy data for investigating prehistoric TC activity, using a 12-year growth rate record of a fossil Tridacna shell (circa 3 ka BP) from the northern South China Sea (NSCS). By analyzing temporal patterns in the proxy data, we derived monthly TC frequency estimates. While modern TC frequency in the NSCS peaks in autumn (September–October), our results showed that TCs at 3 ka BP occurred more frequently in summer (June–July–August), with approximately 15% higher frequency than present. Combined with paleoclimate records, we suggested that this seasonal shift and increased frequency were likely linked to the relatively northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which provided favourable conditions for TC formation and development. Our findings imply that future warming would contribute to earlier TC seasons and increased TC frequency in the NSCS.
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id doaj-art-0674d64e18a648b2badb773a72ce40fe
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series npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
spelling doaj-art-0674d64e18a648b2badb773a72ce40fe2025-08-20T02:06:21ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-06-01811810.1038/s41612-025-01100-1Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shellsNanyu Zhao0Hong Yan1Ge Shi2Fan Luo3Tao Han4Chengcheng Liu5John Dodson6State Key Laboratory of Loess and Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Loess and Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesXi’an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment ResearchXi’an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment ResearchState Key Laboratory of Loess and Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesXi’an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment ResearchSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South WalesAbstract The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a critical concern, but understanding is limited by short instrumental records and low-resolution prehistoric data. Here, we present the first daily-resolution proxy data for investigating prehistoric TC activity, using a 12-year growth rate record of a fossil Tridacna shell (circa 3 ka BP) from the northern South China Sea (NSCS). By analyzing temporal patterns in the proxy data, we derived monthly TC frequency estimates. While modern TC frequency in the NSCS peaks in autumn (September–October), our results showed that TCs at 3 ka BP occurred more frequently in summer (June–July–August), with approximately 15% higher frequency than present. Combined with paleoclimate records, we suggested that this seasonal shift and increased frequency were likely linked to the relatively northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which provided favourable conditions for TC formation and development. Our findings imply that future warming would contribute to earlier TC seasons and increased TC frequency in the NSCS.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01100-1
spellingShingle Nanyu Zhao
Hong Yan
Ge Shi
Fan Luo
Tao Han
Chengcheng Liu
John Dodson
Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
title Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
title_full Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
title_fullStr Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
title_full_unstemmed Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
title_short Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
title_sort prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the south china sea evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01100-1
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