Nilai Faktor Pertumbuhan untuk Estimasi Hujan Rencana di Pulau Jawa
New climate pattern due to climate change exacerbated by watersheds degradation have increased both frequency and intensity of floods in Indonesia. It has an impact on hydrological deteriorating, agricultural and socio-economic conditions, therefore a design flood calculation is needed. Design flood...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Direktorat Bina Teknik Sumber Daya Air
2019-05-01
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| Series: | Jurnal Sumber Daya Air |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://jurnalsda.pusair-pu.go.id/index.php/JSDA/article/view/496/474 |
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| Summary: | New climate pattern due to climate change exacerbated by watersheds degradation have increased both frequency and intensity of floods in Indonesia. It has an impact on hydrological deteriorating, agricultural and socio-economic conditions, therefore a design flood calculation is needed. Design flood is calculated based on the amount of design rainfall estimated by frequency analysis. Parameter estimation obtained from frequency analysis will be used for calculating growth factors, a factor that if multiplied by the median of annual maximum daily rainfall data series can produce T-year rainfall. The aim of this study is to calculate growth factors for estimating design rainfall in several return periods. Annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1916-2013 for 2,611 stations in Java with several statistical methods such as outlier, trend, stationarity, independence, discordance tests in data screening; L-moment in frequency analysis; and principal component analysis for grouping were used in this paper. It is known that based on its spatial characteristics, Java can be grouped into three types (each type categorized as 2 classes). Growth factors in type 1 for return period of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years lies between 0.997 and 2.089. For type 2 and type 3, growth factors lie in the range of 0.996-3.451 and 0.988-3.634, respectively. There is no indication that climate change will affect growth factor value at any return periods. Design rainfall calculated by growth factors can be used for design
flood estimation as well as help decision makers and planners in determining water building designs. |
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| ISSN: | 2548-494X |