Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts
Abstract The impact of hot weather on health outcomes of a population is mediated by a variety of factors, including its age profile and local green infrastructure. The combination of warming due to climate change and demographic aging suggests that heat-related health outcomes will deteriorate in t...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-05676-9 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849238741426634752 |
|---|---|
| author | Hannah Schuster Axel Polleres Amin Anjomshoaa Johannes Wachs |
| author_facet | Hannah Schuster Axel Polleres Amin Anjomshoaa Johannes Wachs |
| author_sort | Hannah Schuster |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The impact of hot weather on health outcomes of a population is mediated by a variety of factors, including its age profile and local green infrastructure. The combination of warming due to climate change and demographic aging suggests that heat-related health outcomes will deteriorate in the coming decades. Here, we measure the relationship between weekly all-cause mortality and heat days in Austrian districts using a panel data set covering $$2015-2022$$ . An additional day reaching $$30 \,^\circ \textrm{C}$$ is associated with a $$2.4\%$$ increase in mortality per 1, 000 inhabitants during summer. This association is increased by approximately $$50\%$$ in districts with a two standard deviation above average share of the population over 65. Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) projections of heat days and demographics in 2050, we observe that districts will have elderly populations and heat days $$2-5$$ standard deviations above the current mean in just 25 years. This predicts a drastic increase in heat-related mortality. At the same time, district green scores, measured using $$10\times 10$$ meter resolution satellite images of residential areas, significantly moderate the relationship between heat and mortality. Thus, although local policies likely cannot reverse warming or demographic trends, they can take measures to mediate the health consequences of these growing risks, which are highly heterogeneous across regions, even in Austria. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0603aa0316554bab9cbf50f6b07493e9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-0603aa0316554bab9cbf50f6b07493e92025-08-20T04:01:25ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115111210.1038/s41598-025-05676-9Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districtsHannah Schuster0Axel Polleres1Amin Anjomshoaa2Johannes Wachs3Complexity Science HubComplexity Science HubVienna University of Economics and BusinessComplexity Science HubAbstract The impact of hot weather on health outcomes of a population is mediated by a variety of factors, including its age profile and local green infrastructure. The combination of warming due to climate change and demographic aging suggests that heat-related health outcomes will deteriorate in the coming decades. Here, we measure the relationship between weekly all-cause mortality and heat days in Austrian districts using a panel data set covering $$2015-2022$$ . An additional day reaching $$30 \,^\circ \textrm{C}$$ is associated with a $$2.4\%$$ increase in mortality per 1, 000 inhabitants during summer. This association is increased by approximately $$50\%$$ in districts with a two standard deviation above average share of the population over 65. Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) projections of heat days and demographics in 2050, we observe that districts will have elderly populations and heat days $$2-5$$ standard deviations above the current mean in just 25 years. This predicts a drastic increase in heat-related mortality. At the same time, district green scores, measured using $$10\times 10$$ meter resolution satellite images of residential areas, significantly moderate the relationship between heat and mortality. Thus, although local policies likely cannot reverse warming or demographic trends, they can take measures to mediate the health consequences of these growing risks, which are highly heterogeneous across regions, even in Austria.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-05676-9Heat and HealthAgingVulnerable populationsGreen spaceForecasting |
| spellingShingle | Hannah Schuster Axel Polleres Amin Anjomshoaa Johannes Wachs Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts Scientific Reports Heat and Health Aging Vulnerable populations Green space Forecasting |
| title | Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts |
| title_full | Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts |
| title_fullStr | Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts |
| title_short | Heat, health, and habitats: analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in Austrian districts |
| title_sort | heat health and habitats analyzing the intersecting risks of climate and demographic shifts in austrian districts |
| topic | Heat and Health Aging Vulnerable populations Green space Forecasting |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-05676-9 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hannahschuster heathealthandhabitatsanalyzingtheintersectingrisksofclimateanddemographicshiftsinaustriandistricts AT axelpolleres heathealthandhabitatsanalyzingtheintersectingrisksofclimateanddemographicshiftsinaustriandistricts AT aminanjomshoaa heathealthandhabitatsanalyzingtheintersectingrisksofclimateanddemographicshiftsinaustriandistricts AT johanneswachs heathealthandhabitatsanalyzingtheintersectingrisksofclimateanddemographicshiftsinaustriandistricts |