Predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an East-Asian population-based cohort: the Singapore Chinese health study

Abstract Polygenic scores (PGS) are derived primarily from European population studies. It is unclear how these perform in risk predictions among East-Asians. We generated 2173 PGSs from 519 traits and assessed their associations with 58 baseline phenotypes in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a p...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Xuling Chang, Chih Chuan Shih, Jieqi Chen, Ai Shan Lee, Patrick Tan, Ling Wang, Jianjun Liu, Jingmei Li, Jian-Min Yuan, Chiea Chuen Khor, Woon-Puay Koh, Rajkumar Dorajoo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-08-01
Series:Communications Biology
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-025-08675-8
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849332022640640000
author Xuling Chang
Chih Chuan Shih
Jieqi Chen
Ai Shan Lee
Patrick Tan
Ling Wang
Jianjun Liu
Jingmei Li
Jian-Min Yuan
Chiea Chuen Khor
Woon-Puay Koh
Rajkumar Dorajoo
author_facet Xuling Chang
Chih Chuan Shih
Jieqi Chen
Ai Shan Lee
Patrick Tan
Ling Wang
Jianjun Liu
Jingmei Li
Jian-Min Yuan
Chiea Chuen Khor
Woon-Puay Koh
Rajkumar Dorajoo
author_sort Xuling Chang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Polygenic scores (PGS) are derived primarily from European population studies. It is unclear how these perform in risk predictions among East-Asians. We generated 2173 PGSs from 519 traits and assessed their associations with 58 baseline phenotypes in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective cohort of 23,622 Chinese adults residing in Singapore. PGS performances were evaluated through explained variance (r²) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in linear and logistic regression models, respectively. Traits with higher heritability exhibited stronger PGS associations, while behavioural traits, like sleep duration, showed weaker associations. Height and type 2 diabetes (T2D) exhibited largest SNP-based heritability with the largest increments in explained variance and AUC. We explored the effect of T2D risk factors on the association between the T2D PGS (PGS003444) and incident T2D. PGS associations were significantly mediated and modified by hypertension (P indirect = 1.56 × 10−18, P interaction = 2.10 × 10−3) and BMI (P indirect = 1.25 × 10−36, P interaction = 1.11 × 10−6). Prediction ability of PGS003444 for incident T2D was stronger among non-overweight individuals without hypertension (AUC = 0.774) than in overweight individuals with hypertension (AUC = 0.709). Our study demonstrates the divergent ability of PGSs in predictions of complex traits. For certain traits, such as T2D, PGSs may have the potential for improving risk prediction and personalized healthcare.
format Article
id doaj-art-05ece6ff950f4544b13b790de03a097c
institution Kabale University
issn 2399-3642
language English
publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Communications Biology
spelling doaj-art-05ece6ff950f4544b13b790de03a097c2025-08-20T03:46:21ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Biology2399-36422025-08-01811910.1038/s42003-025-08675-8Predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an East-Asian population-based cohort: the Singapore Chinese health studyXuling Chang0Chih Chuan Shih1Jieqi Chen2Ai Shan Lee3Patrick Tan4Ling Wang5Jianjun Liu6Jingmei Li7Jian-Min Yuan8Chiea Chuen Khor9Woon-Puay Koh10Rajkumar Dorajoo11Department of Paediatrics, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of SingaporeGenome Institute of Singapore (GIS), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)Genome Institute of Singapore (GIS), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)Genome Institute of Singapore (GIS), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)Genome Institute of Singapore (GIS), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)Genome Institute of Singapore (GIS), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)Genome Institute of Singapore (GIS), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)Genome Institute of Singapore (GIS), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)UPMC (University of Pittsburgh Medical Center) Hillman Cancer CenterGenome Institute of Singapore (GIS), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)Healthy Longevity Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of SingaporeDepartment of Paediatrics, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of SingaporeAbstract Polygenic scores (PGS) are derived primarily from European population studies. It is unclear how these perform in risk predictions among East-Asians. We generated 2173 PGSs from 519 traits and assessed their associations with 58 baseline phenotypes in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective cohort of 23,622 Chinese adults residing in Singapore. PGS performances were evaluated through explained variance (r²) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in linear and logistic regression models, respectively. Traits with higher heritability exhibited stronger PGS associations, while behavioural traits, like sleep duration, showed weaker associations. Height and type 2 diabetes (T2D) exhibited largest SNP-based heritability with the largest increments in explained variance and AUC. We explored the effect of T2D risk factors on the association between the T2D PGS (PGS003444) and incident T2D. PGS associations were significantly mediated and modified by hypertension (P indirect = 1.56 × 10−18, P interaction = 2.10 × 10−3) and BMI (P indirect = 1.25 × 10−36, P interaction = 1.11 × 10−6). Prediction ability of PGS003444 for incident T2D was stronger among non-overweight individuals without hypertension (AUC = 0.774) than in overweight individuals with hypertension (AUC = 0.709). Our study demonstrates the divergent ability of PGSs in predictions of complex traits. For certain traits, such as T2D, PGSs may have the potential for improving risk prediction and personalized healthcare.https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-025-08675-8
spellingShingle Xuling Chang
Chih Chuan Shih
Jieqi Chen
Ai Shan Lee
Patrick Tan
Ling Wang
Jianjun Liu
Jingmei Li
Jian-Min Yuan
Chiea Chuen Khor
Woon-Puay Koh
Rajkumar Dorajoo
Predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an East-Asian population-based cohort: the Singapore Chinese health study
Communications Biology
title Predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an East-Asian population-based cohort: the Singapore Chinese health study
title_full Predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an East-Asian population-based cohort: the Singapore Chinese health study
title_fullStr Predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an East-Asian population-based cohort: the Singapore Chinese health study
title_full_unstemmed Predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an East-Asian population-based cohort: the Singapore Chinese health study
title_short Predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an East-Asian population-based cohort: the Singapore Chinese health study
title_sort predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in an east asian population based cohort the singapore chinese health study
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-025-08675-8
work_keys_str_mv AT xulingchang predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT chihchuanshih predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT jieqichen predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT aishanlee predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT patricktan predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT lingwang predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT jianjunliu predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT jingmeili predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT jianminyuan predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT chieachuenkhor predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT woonpuaykoh predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy
AT rajkumardorajoo predictivecapabilitiesofpolygenicscoresinaneastasianpopulationbasedcohortthesingaporechinesehealthstudy