Party realignment and single-issue voters.

This paper studies the effect of a single-issue referendum on political party realignment. We consider the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom in the aftermath of a referendum on the British exit from the European Union. We look at the change in positions of Conservative Members of Parliament u...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Christian Cox, Ian Shapiro
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2025-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0319522
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849327852160286720
author Christian Cox
Ian Shapiro
author_facet Christian Cox
Ian Shapiro
author_sort Christian Cox
collection DOAJ
description This paper studies the effect of a single-issue referendum on political party realignment. We consider the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom in the aftermath of a referendum on the British exit from the European Union. We look at the change in positions of Conservative Members of Parliament using a novel dataset tracking their opinions on British membership of the EU and their election outcomes between 2015 and 2022. Our findings show that MPs who resisted switching to a pro-Leave position faced significantly higher electoral losses. We then consider various models of switching, showing that safe seats are strong predictors. These results highlight the sensitivity of political parties to single-issue politics, underscoring how such environments can contribute to broader populist movements in modern democracies.
format Article
id doaj-art-05935a1fe04a4cd595dd284807fc27ce
institution Kabale University
issn 1932-6203
language English
publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
record_format Article
series PLoS ONE
spelling doaj-art-05935a1fe04a4cd595dd284807fc27ce2025-08-20T03:47:45ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032025-01-01203e031952210.1371/journal.pone.0319522Party realignment and single-issue voters.Christian CoxIan ShapiroThis paper studies the effect of a single-issue referendum on political party realignment. We consider the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom in the aftermath of a referendum on the British exit from the European Union. We look at the change in positions of Conservative Members of Parliament using a novel dataset tracking their opinions on British membership of the EU and their election outcomes between 2015 and 2022. Our findings show that MPs who resisted switching to a pro-Leave position faced significantly higher electoral losses. We then consider various models of switching, showing that safe seats are strong predictors. These results highlight the sensitivity of political parties to single-issue politics, underscoring how such environments can contribute to broader populist movements in modern democracies.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0319522
spellingShingle Christian Cox
Ian Shapiro
Party realignment and single-issue voters.
PLoS ONE
title Party realignment and single-issue voters.
title_full Party realignment and single-issue voters.
title_fullStr Party realignment and single-issue voters.
title_full_unstemmed Party realignment and single-issue voters.
title_short Party realignment and single-issue voters.
title_sort party realignment and single issue voters
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0319522
work_keys_str_mv AT christiancox partyrealignmentandsingleissuevoters
AT ianshapiro partyrealignmentandsingleissuevoters