Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin
Cropland is crucial for food production, food security, and economic stability, especially in high-altitude Tibetan regions where it is limited. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of cropland in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) from 2000 to 2020. Using land u...
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MDPI AG
2025-07-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/13/2328 |
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| author | Mengni He Yanguo Liu Liwei Tan Jingji Li Ziqin Wang Yafeng Lu Wenxu Liu Qi Tan |
| author_facet | Mengni He Yanguo Liu Liwei Tan Jingji Li Ziqin Wang Yafeng Lu Wenxu Liu Qi Tan |
| author_sort | Mengni He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Cropland is crucial for food production, food security, and economic stability, especially in high-altitude Tibetan regions where it is limited. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of cropland in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) from 2000 to 2020. Using land use transfer matrices, center of gravity models, standard deviation ellipses, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), it explores cropland dynamics and predicts land use for 2030. Results show the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of cropland entering the basin exceeded that leaving, mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, with a dynamic degree of 0.97%. The proportion of cropland increased from 1.28% in 2000 to 1.52% in 2020. (2) The center of gravity shifted northwest (2000–2005), southeast (2005–2015), and northwest again (2015–2020). (3) Factors like elevation, temperature, precipitation, population density, and GDP correlated with cropland changes. Natural factors positively affected cropland expansion, while socioeconomic and proximity factors indirectly inhibited it. (4) The 2030 cropland conservation scenario in the PLUS model ensures cropland security, ecological protection, and controlled construction land expansion, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals. Targeted cropland conservation measures can effectively promote sustainable land use and ecological security in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-05704aab5cd04dd486d1cd3db44c7b79 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj-art-05704aab5cd04dd486d1cd3db44c7b792025-08-20T03:16:42ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922025-07-011713232810.3390/rs17132328Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River BasinMengni He0Yanguo Liu1Liwei Tan2Jingji Li3Ziqin Wang4Yafeng Lu5Wenxu Liu6Qi Tan7Mianyang Science and Technology City Division, the National Remote Sensing Center of China, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, ChinaMianyang Science and Technology City Division, the National Remote Sensing Center of China, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, ChinaMianyang Science and Technology City Division, the National Remote Sensing Center of China, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Geo-Hazard Prevention and Geo-Environment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Geo-Hazard Prevention and Geo-Environment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, ChinaInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, ChinaMianyang Science and Technology City Division, the National Remote Sensing Center of China, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, ChinaMianyang Science and Technology City Division, the National Remote Sensing Center of China, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, ChinaCropland is crucial for food production, food security, and economic stability, especially in high-altitude Tibetan regions where it is limited. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of cropland in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) from 2000 to 2020. Using land use transfer matrices, center of gravity models, standard deviation ellipses, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), it explores cropland dynamics and predicts land use for 2030. Results show the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of cropland entering the basin exceeded that leaving, mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, with a dynamic degree of 0.97%. The proportion of cropland increased from 1.28% in 2000 to 1.52% in 2020. (2) The center of gravity shifted northwest (2000–2005), southeast (2005–2015), and northwest again (2015–2020). (3) Factors like elevation, temperature, precipitation, population density, and GDP correlated with cropland changes. Natural factors positively affected cropland expansion, while socioeconomic and proximity factors indirectly inhibited it. (4) The 2030 cropland conservation scenario in the PLUS model ensures cropland security, ecological protection, and controlled construction land expansion, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals. Targeted cropland conservation measures can effectively promote sustainable land use and ecological security in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/13/2328croplandspatiotemporal evolutionPLUS modelPLS-SEM modelYarlung Zangbo River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Mengni He Yanguo Liu Liwei Tan Jingji Li Ziqin Wang Yafeng Lu Wenxu Liu Qi Tan Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin Remote Sensing cropland spatiotemporal evolution PLUS model PLS-SEM model Yarlung Zangbo River Basin |
| title | Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal dynamic changes in cropland and multi scenario simulation in the yarlung zangbo river basin |
| topic | cropland spatiotemporal evolution PLUS model PLS-SEM model Yarlung Zangbo River Basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/13/2328 |
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