From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia
ABSTRACT Ephedra intermedia, a medicinally significant plant, is an important component of arid and semi‐arid ecosystems across Central and South Asia. This research sought to predict the present and future distribution of E. intermedia by applying ecological niche modeling (ENM) methods. The model...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71127 |
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| author | Muhammad Waheed Fahim Arshad Sehrish Sadia Beatrice Ambo Fonge Abeer Al‐Andal Asma Jabeen Shalom Dilshad |
| author_facet | Muhammad Waheed Fahim Arshad Sehrish Sadia Beatrice Ambo Fonge Abeer Al‐Andal Asma Jabeen Shalom Dilshad |
| author_sort | Muhammad Waheed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Ephedra intermedia, a medicinally significant plant, is an important component of arid and semi‐arid ecosystems across Central and South Asia. This research sought to predict the present and future distribution of E. intermedia by applying ecological niche modeling (ENM) methods. The model incorporated comprehensive bioclimatic and edaphic variables to predict the species' habitat suitability. The results demonstrated high predictive accuracy, highlighting the importance of temperature seasonality, annual temperature range, soil pH, and nitrogen content as key species distribution determinants. The current habitat suitability map revealed core areas in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan mountain regions. Under future climate change scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s, the model projected a significant upward and northward shift in suitable habitats, coupled with a notable contraction in the extent of highly suitable areas, particularly under the high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 scenario. The predicted range shifts reflect the species' sensitivity to increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. This suggests a potential loss of suitable habitats in low‐elevation and southern parts of its range. Including edaphic factors in the model provided novel insights, specifically highlighting the critical role of soil properties, such as soil pH and nitrogen content, in shaping the ecological niche of E. intermedia. These findings complement the observed upward and northward shifts in habitat suitability under future climate scenarios, emphasizing the species' reliance on high‐altitude refugia as climate conditions change. The results underscore important implications for conservation planning, suggesting that strategies should prioritize the protection of these refugial habitats while also considering measures such as habitat connectivity and assisted migration to support the species' adaptation to shifting environmental conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-05535c3e6d054fb692e803d4b5a0e11a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-05535c3e6d054fb692e803d4b5a0e11a2025-08-20T03:52:25ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582025-03-01153n/an/a10.1002/ece3.71127From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central AsiaMuhammad Waheed0Fahim Arshad1Sehrish Sadia2Beatrice Ambo Fonge3Abeer Al‐Andal4Asma Jabeen5Shalom Dilshad6Department of Botany University of Okara Okara PakistanDepartment of Botany University of Okara Okara PakistanDepartment of Biological Sciences University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences Pattoki PakistanDepartment of Plant Science University of Buea Buea CameroonDepartment of Biology, College of Science King Khalid University Abha Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Environmental Sciences Fatima Jinnah Women University Rawalpindi PakistanDepartment of Botany University of Okara Okara PakistanABSTRACT Ephedra intermedia, a medicinally significant plant, is an important component of arid and semi‐arid ecosystems across Central and South Asia. This research sought to predict the present and future distribution of E. intermedia by applying ecological niche modeling (ENM) methods. The model incorporated comprehensive bioclimatic and edaphic variables to predict the species' habitat suitability. The results demonstrated high predictive accuracy, highlighting the importance of temperature seasonality, annual temperature range, soil pH, and nitrogen content as key species distribution determinants. The current habitat suitability map revealed core areas in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan mountain regions. Under future climate change scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s, the model projected a significant upward and northward shift in suitable habitats, coupled with a notable contraction in the extent of highly suitable areas, particularly under the high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 scenario. The predicted range shifts reflect the species' sensitivity to increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. This suggests a potential loss of suitable habitats in low‐elevation and southern parts of its range. Including edaphic factors in the model provided novel insights, specifically highlighting the critical role of soil properties, such as soil pH and nitrogen content, in shaping the ecological niche of E. intermedia. These findings complement the observed upward and northward shifts in habitat suitability under future climate scenarios, emphasizing the species' reliance on high‐altitude refugia as climate conditions change. The results underscore important implications for conservation planning, suggesting that strategies should prioritize the protection of these refugial habitats while also considering measures such as habitat connectivity and assisted migration to support the species' adaptation to shifting environmental conditions.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71127climate change impactconservation planningecological niche modelingEphedra intermediahabitat suitability |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Waheed Fahim Arshad Sehrish Sadia Beatrice Ambo Fonge Abeer Al‐Andal Asma Jabeen Shalom Dilshad From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia Ecology and Evolution climate change impact conservation planning ecological niche modeling Ephedra intermedia habitat suitability |
| title | From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia |
| title_full | From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia |
| title_fullStr | From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia |
| title_short | From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia |
| title_sort | from ecological niche to conservation planning climate driven range dynamics of ephedra intermedia in central asia |
| topic | climate change impact conservation planning ecological niche modeling Ephedra intermedia habitat suitability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71127 |
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