Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains
Abstract Water scarcity is a critical threat in arid regions in China due to dry climate and rising human water demand. The sustainability of a recent wetter trend and its impact on future water security remain uncertain. This case study focuses on a hotspot region, the North Slope of the Tianshan M...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005070 |
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| author | Xingcai Liu Qiuhong Tang Ying Zhao Puyu Wang |
| author_facet | Xingcai Liu Qiuhong Tang Ying Zhao Puyu Wang |
| author_sort | Xingcai Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Water scarcity is a critical threat in arid regions in China due to dry climate and rising human water demand. The sustainability of a recent wetter trend and its impact on future water security remain uncertain. This case study focuses on a hotspot region, the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM), to assess water scarcity in the coming decades (2030–2050) under two climate scenarios. To this end, we developed an integrated agro‐hydrological model to simulate historical and future hydrological processes and crop water dynamics in arid regions. Our results indicate nonsignificant increases in precipitation (around 3%) and evident rising temperatures (0.9–1.5°C) in the NSTM compared to the present‐day (2011–2020) climate. This translates to a projected increase in water availability (5.6%–11.2%) during 2030–2050, with slightly larger increases (6.3%–14%) in glacier runoff. However, the spatial mismatch between precipitation increases and water demand makes this potential gain largely offset by rising irrigation water demand (over 7%) if cropland remains constant from 2020 onwards. As a result, the current annual water deficit (3.3 km3) is likely to increase by 5%–11%, with 32% of NSTM basins facing persistent water scarcity. Most croplands are at high risk of groundwater depletion and 17%–34% of basins will experience intensified water scarcity. These findings highlight the urgent need for comprehensive water management strategies, including improved irrigation efficiency and exploration of alternative water sources, to ensure water security and sustainable development in arid China facing a changing climate. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0531365dca004022a2cd5a65888bda34 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-0531365dca004022a2cd5a65888bda342025-08-20T02:38:24ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-11-011211n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005070Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan MountainsXingcai Liu0Qiuhong Tang1Ying Zhao2Puyu Wang3Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering Ludong University Yantai ChinaState Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science/Tianshan Glaciological Station Northwest Institute of Eco‐Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou ChinaAbstract Water scarcity is a critical threat in arid regions in China due to dry climate and rising human water demand. The sustainability of a recent wetter trend and its impact on future water security remain uncertain. This case study focuses on a hotspot region, the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM), to assess water scarcity in the coming decades (2030–2050) under two climate scenarios. To this end, we developed an integrated agro‐hydrological model to simulate historical and future hydrological processes and crop water dynamics in arid regions. Our results indicate nonsignificant increases in precipitation (around 3%) and evident rising temperatures (0.9–1.5°C) in the NSTM compared to the present‐day (2011–2020) climate. This translates to a projected increase in water availability (5.6%–11.2%) during 2030–2050, with slightly larger increases (6.3%–14%) in glacier runoff. However, the spatial mismatch between precipitation increases and water demand makes this potential gain largely offset by rising irrigation water demand (over 7%) if cropland remains constant from 2020 onwards. As a result, the current annual water deficit (3.3 km3) is likely to increase by 5%–11%, with 32% of NSTM basins facing persistent water scarcity. Most croplands are at high risk of groundwater depletion and 17%–34% of basins will experience intensified water scarcity. These findings highlight the urgent need for comprehensive water management strategies, including improved irrigation efficiency and exploration of alternative water sources, to ensure water security and sustainable development in arid China facing a changing climate.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005070water scarcityagricultural waterhuman impactglacierclimate changearid region |
| spellingShingle | Xingcai Liu Qiuhong Tang Ying Zhao Puyu Wang Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains Earth's Future water scarcity agricultural water human impact glacier climate change arid region |
| title | Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains |
| title_full | Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains |
| title_fullStr | Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains |
| title_full_unstemmed | Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains |
| title_short | Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains |
| title_sort | persistent water scarcity due to high irrigation demand in arid china a case study in the north slope of the tianshan mountains |
| topic | water scarcity agricultural water human impact glacier climate change arid region |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005070 |
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