Land Use Change Forcing Data Undermine the Modeling of China's Greening Efforts

Abstract China has made extensive afforestation efforts over the past 40 years. However, ecosystem models simulate only modest vegetation enhancement, creating a significant disparity between documented reforestation efforts and model‐based simulations. This fundamental mismatch remains largely unex...

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Main Authors: Ziyu Wang, Weiqing Zhao, Sen Cao, Pengjun Zhao, Yuhang Luo, Dajing Li, Ziyun Sun, Zaichun Zhu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-03-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113403
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author Ziyu Wang
Weiqing Zhao
Sen Cao
Pengjun Zhao
Yuhang Luo
Dajing Li
Ziyun Sun
Zaichun Zhu
author_facet Ziyu Wang
Weiqing Zhao
Sen Cao
Pengjun Zhao
Yuhang Luo
Dajing Li
Ziyun Sun
Zaichun Zhu
author_sort Ziyu Wang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract China has made extensive afforestation efforts over the past 40 years. However, ecosystem models simulate only modest vegetation enhancement, creating a significant disparity between documented reforestation efforts and model‐based simulations. This fundamental mismatch remains largely unexplored. Here, we conducted a comprehensive analysis using diverse observation data to identify the determinant within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) that underestimates vegetation growth in China. By developing a high‐resolution forest cover change data set, we found that LUH2‐GCB, the common land use input for DGVMs, causes models to underestimate afforestation. With a neighborhood comparison analysis, we quantitively demonstrated the predominant role of underestimated afforestation in lowering leaf area index (LAI) trends. Overall, DGVMs underestimated China's afforestation area by an average of 26.88%, leading to a 29.46% underestimation in LAI increase. Our findings confirm a significant greening trend in China and highlight the need for improved land use data representation in DGVMs.
format Article
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institution OA Journals
issn 0094-8276
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language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-050aa75925fb478f96b83ee6b1122ac22025-08-20T02:16:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01525n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113403Land Use Change Forcing Data Undermine the Modeling of China's Greening EffortsZiyu Wang0Weiqing Zhao1Sen Cao2Pengjun Zhao3Yuhang Luo4Dajing Li5Ziyun Sun6Zaichun Zhu7School of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen ChinaSchool of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen ChinaSchool of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen ChinaSchool of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen ChinaSchool of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen ChinaSchool of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen ChinaSchool of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen ChinaSchool of Urban Planning and Design Shenzhen Graduate School Peking University Shenzhen ChinaAbstract China has made extensive afforestation efforts over the past 40 years. However, ecosystem models simulate only modest vegetation enhancement, creating a significant disparity between documented reforestation efforts and model‐based simulations. This fundamental mismatch remains largely unexplored. Here, we conducted a comprehensive analysis using diverse observation data to identify the determinant within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) that underestimates vegetation growth in China. By developing a high‐resolution forest cover change data set, we found that LUH2‐GCB, the common land use input for DGVMs, causes models to underestimate afforestation. With a neighborhood comparison analysis, we quantitively demonstrated the predominant role of underestimated afforestation in lowering leaf area index (LAI) trends. Overall, DGVMs underestimated China's afforestation area by an average of 26.88%, leading to a 29.46% underestimation in LAI increase. Our findings confirm a significant greening trend in China and highlight the need for improved land use data representation in DGVMs.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113403ecosystem modelsforest cover changeLUH2‐GCBplant functional typesleaf area index
spellingShingle Ziyu Wang
Weiqing Zhao
Sen Cao
Pengjun Zhao
Yuhang Luo
Dajing Li
Ziyun Sun
Zaichun Zhu
Land Use Change Forcing Data Undermine the Modeling of China's Greening Efforts
Geophysical Research Letters
ecosystem models
forest cover change
LUH2‐GCB
plant functional types
leaf area index
title Land Use Change Forcing Data Undermine the Modeling of China's Greening Efforts
title_full Land Use Change Forcing Data Undermine the Modeling of China's Greening Efforts
title_fullStr Land Use Change Forcing Data Undermine the Modeling of China's Greening Efforts
title_full_unstemmed Land Use Change Forcing Data Undermine the Modeling of China's Greening Efforts
title_short Land Use Change Forcing Data Undermine the Modeling of China's Greening Efforts
title_sort land use change forcing data undermine the modeling of china s greening efforts
topic ecosystem models
forest cover change
LUH2‐GCB
plant functional types
leaf area index
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113403
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AT pengjunzhao landusechangeforcingdataunderminethemodelingofchinasgreeningefforts
AT yuhangluo landusechangeforcingdataunderminethemodelingofchinasgreeningefforts
AT dajingli landusechangeforcingdataunderminethemodelingofchinasgreeningefforts
AT ziyunsun landusechangeforcingdataunderminethemodelingofchinasgreeningefforts
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