Global, regional, and national burden of dengue, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021

Background: Dengue is an acute viral infectious disease caused by the dengue virus and transmitted through mosquitoes. Although numerous studies have examined the global burden of dengue, comprehensive and systematic global analyses remain limited. This study uses data from the Global Burden of Dise...

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Main Authors: Shun-Xian Zhang, Guo-Bing Yang, Ren-Jie Zhang, Jin-Xin Zheng, Jian Yang, Shan Lv, Lei Duan, Li-Guang Tian, Mu-Xin Chen, Qin Liu, Yu Wang, Xiao-Jie Hu, Ji-Chun Wang, Shi-Zhu Li, Xiao-Nong Zhou
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2024-01-01
Series:Decoding Infection and Transmission
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949924024000053
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author Shun-Xian Zhang
Guo-Bing Yang
Ren-Jie Zhang
Jin-Xin Zheng
Jian Yang
Shan Lv
Lei Duan
Li-Guang Tian
Mu-Xin Chen
Qin Liu
Yu Wang
Xiao-Jie Hu
Ji-Chun Wang
Shi-Zhu Li
Xiao-Nong Zhou
author_facet Shun-Xian Zhang
Guo-Bing Yang
Ren-Jie Zhang
Jin-Xin Zheng
Jian Yang
Shan Lv
Lei Duan
Li-Guang Tian
Mu-Xin Chen
Qin Liu
Yu Wang
Xiao-Jie Hu
Ji-Chun Wang
Shi-Zhu Li
Xiao-Nong Zhou
author_sort Shun-Xian Zhang
collection DOAJ
description Background: Dengue is an acute viral infectious disease caused by the dengue virus and transmitted through mosquitoes. Although numerous studies have examined the global burden of dengue, comprehensive and systematic global analyses remain limited. This study uses data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to systematically analyze the global epidemiological trends and disease burden of dengue from 1990 to 2021. Methods: This study utilized data from the GBD Study 2021 Study to analyze trends in the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of dengue across 204 countries and territories, stratified by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. In addition, a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict the future burden of dengue. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to describe the overall trend in rates or counts of indicators between 1990 and 2021. Results: In 2021, the global ASIR of dengue was 752.04 per 100,000 population (95 % UI: 196.33–1363.35), and ASMR was 0.38 per 100,000 population (95 % UI: 0.23–0.51). From 1990 to 2021, both the ASIR (AAPC = 7.89, 95 % CI: 7.89–8.91) and ASMR (AAPC = 0.01, 95 % CI: 0.00–0.01) showed an increasing trend. Adolescents under 14 years had the highest ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for dengue. By 2035, the projected ASIR of dengue is 862.23 per 100,000 population (95 % CI: 627.84–1096.62 per 100,000 population), the ASPR is 51.60 per 100,000 population (95 % CI: 37.70–65.50 per 100,000 population), and the ASMR is 0.43 per 100,000 population (95 % CI: 0.29–0.56 per 100,000 population). The ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALYs for dengue are expected to continue rising in the next 10 years. Conclusion: The global burden of dengue is projected to continue rising in the coming years, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive control measures, including enhanced vector control, public education, vaccination, and drug development. These findings provide crucial scientific evidence for the formulation of effective public health strategies and interventions aimed at reducing the global threat posed by dengue.
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spelling doaj-art-04b3f9705aad41b8b1bc1d15fca5ed102025-08-20T03:21:16ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Decoding Infection and Transmission2949-92402024-01-01210002110.1016/j.dcit.2024.100021Global, regional, and national burden of dengue, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021Shun-Xian Zhang0Guo-Bing Yang1Ren-Jie Zhang2Jin-Xin Zheng3Jian Yang4Shan Lv5Lei Duan6Li-Guang Tian7Mu-Xin Chen8Qin Liu9Yu Wang10Xiao-Jie Hu11Ji-Chun Wang12Shi-Zhu Li13Xiao-Nong Zhou14Longhua Hospital, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 200032, China; NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, ChinaGansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaNHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, ChinaSchool of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research-Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, ChinaDepartment of Science and Technology, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, ChinaNHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, ChinaNHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, ChinaNHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, ChinaNHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, ChinaNHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, ChinaLonghua Hospital, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 200032, ChinaLonghua Hospital, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 200032, ChinaDepartment of Science and Technology, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China; Corresponding author.NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China; Corresponding author.NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China; School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research-Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China; Corresponding author. NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research On Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China.Background: Dengue is an acute viral infectious disease caused by the dengue virus and transmitted through mosquitoes. Although numerous studies have examined the global burden of dengue, comprehensive and systematic global analyses remain limited. This study uses data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to systematically analyze the global epidemiological trends and disease burden of dengue from 1990 to 2021. Methods: This study utilized data from the GBD Study 2021 Study to analyze trends in the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of dengue across 204 countries and territories, stratified by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. In addition, a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict the future burden of dengue. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to describe the overall trend in rates or counts of indicators between 1990 and 2021. Results: In 2021, the global ASIR of dengue was 752.04 per 100,000 population (95 % UI: 196.33–1363.35), and ASMR was 0.38 per 100,000 population (95 % UI: 0.23–0.51). From 1990 to 2021, both the ASIR (AAPC = 7.89, 95 % CI: 7.89–8.91) and ASMR (AAPC = 0.01, 95 % CI: 0.00–0.01) showed an increasing trend. Adolescents under 14 years had the highest ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for dengue. By 2035, the projected ASIR of dengue is 862.23 per 100,000 population (95 % CI: 627.84–1096.62 per 100,000 population), the ASPR is 51.60 per 100,000 population (95 % CI: 37.70–65.50 per 100,000 population), and the ASMR is 0.43 per 100,000 population (95 % CI: 0.29–0.56 per 100,000 population). The ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALYs for dengue are expected to continue rising in the next 10 years. Conclusion: The global burden of dengue is projected to continue rising in the coming years, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive control measures, including enhanced vector control, public education, vaccination, and drug development. These findings provide crucial scientific evidence for the formulation of effective public health strategies and interventions aimed at reducing the global threat posed by dengue.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949924024000053DengueGlobal burden of disease 2021BAPCPrediction
spellingShingle Shun-Xian Zhang
Guo-Bing Yang
Ren-Jie Zhang
Jin-Xin Zheng
Jian Yang
Shan Lv
Lei Duan
Li-Guang Tian
Mu-Xin Chen
Qin Liu
Yu Wang
Xiao-Jie Hu
Ji-Chun Wang
Shi-Zhu Li
Xiao-Nong Zhou
Global, regional, and national burden of dengue, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
Decoding Infection and Transmission
Dengue
Global burden of disease 2021
BAPC
Prediction
title Global, regional, and national burden of dengue, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
title_full Global, regional, and national burden of dengue, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
title_fullStr Global, regional, and national burden of dengue, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
title_full_unstemmed Global, regional, and national burden of dengue, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
title_short Global, regional, and national burden of dengue, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
title_sort global regional and national burden of dengue 1990 2021 findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
topic Dengue
Global burden of disease 2021
BAPC
Prediction
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949924024000053
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