Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation?
Based on the results from a questionnaire survey and qualitative interviews among different actors involved in traffic forecasting, this paper discusses what evidence can be found in support of competing explanations of forecasting errors. There are indications that technical problems and manipulati...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing
2015-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Transport and Land Use |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/719 |
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| _version_ | 1849760948722597888 |
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| author | Petter Naess Jeppe Astrup Andersen Morten Skou Nicolaisen Arvid Strand |
| author_facet | Petter Naess Jeppe Astrup Andersen Morten Skou Nicolaisen Arvid Strand |
| author_sort | Petter Naess |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on the results from a questionnaire survey and qualitative interviews among different actors involved in traffic forecasting, this paper discusses what evidence can be found in support of competing explanations of forecasting errors. There are indications that technical problems and manipulation, and to a lesser extent optimism bias, may be part of the explanation of observed systematic biases in forecasting. In addition, unexpected events can render the forecasts erroneous, and many respondents and interviewees consider it to be simply not possible to make precise predictions about the future. The results give rise to some critical reflections about the reliability of project evaluations based on traffic forecasts susceptible to several systematic as well as random sources of error. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-04ad9481ee3b4de7aaf5bbc50d4838b5 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1938-7849 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-08-01 |
| publisher | University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Transport and Land Use |
| spelling | doaj-art-04ad9481ee3b4de7aaf5bbc50d4838b52025-08-20T03:06:10ZengUniversity of Minnesota Libraries PublishingJournal of Transport and Land Use1938-78492015-08-018310.5198/jtlu.2015.719Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation?Petter Naess0Jeppe Astrup Andersen1Morten Skou Nicolaisen2Arvid Strand3Norwegian University of Life SciencesAalborg UniversityAalborg UniversityInstitute of Transport EconomicsBased on the results from a questionnaire survey and qualitative interviews among different actors involved in traffic forecasting, this paper discusses what evidence can be found in support of competing explanations of forecasting errors. There are indications that technical problems and manipulation, and to a lesser extent optimism bias, may be part of the explanation of observed systematic biases in forecasting. In addition, unexpected events can render the forecasts erroneous, and many respondents and interviewees consider it to be simply not possible to make precise predictions about the future. The results give rise to some critical reflections about the reliability of project evaluations based on traffic forecasts susceptible to several systematic as well as random sources of error.https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/719ForecastingInaccuracyBiasModeling |
| spellingShingle | Petter Naess Jeppe Astrup Andersen Morten Skou Nicolaisen Arvid Strand Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation? Journal of Transport and Land Use Forecasting Inaccuracy Bias Modeling |
| title | Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation? |
| title_full | Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation? |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation? |
| title_short | Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation? |
| title_sort | forecasting inaccuracies a result of unexpected events optimism bias technical problems or strategic misrepresentation |
| topic | Forecasting Inaccuracy Bias Modeling |
| url | https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/719 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT petternaess forecastinginaccuraciesaresultofunexpectedeventsoptimismbiastechnicalproblemsorstrategicmisrepresentation AT jeppeastrupandersen forecastinginaccuraciesaresultofunexpectedeventsoptimismbiastechnicalproblemsorstrategicmisrepresentation AT mortenskounicolaisen forecastinginaccuraciesaresultofunexpectedeventsoptimismbiastechnicalproblemsorstrategicmisrepresentation AT arvidstrand forecastinginaccuraciesaresultofunexpectedeventsoptimismbiastechnicalproblemsorstrategicmisrepresentation |