Establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients

Background This study aimed to construct a novel model and validate its predictive power in non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (NESCC) patients.Methods This retrospective study included 151 patients between October 2006 and September 2016. The LASSO Cox and Random Survival Forest (RSF) models we...

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Main Authors: Ning Xue, Xiaoyan Wen, Qian Wang, Yong Shen, Yuanye Qu, Qingxia Xu, Shulin Chen, Jing Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2025-12-01
Series:Annals of Medicine
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Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/07853890.2025.2483985
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author Ning Xue
Xiaoyan Wen
Qian Wang
Yong Shen
Yuanye Qu
Qingxia Xu
Shulin Chen
Jing Chen
author_facet Ning Xue
Xiaoyan Wen
Qian Wang
Yong Shen
Yuanye Qu
Qingxia Xu
Shulin Chen
Jing Chen
author_sort Ning Xue
collection DOAJ
description Background This study aimed to construct a novel model and validate its predictive power in non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (NESCC) patients.Methods This retrospective study included 151 patients between October 2006 and September 2016. The LASSO Cox and Random Survival Forest (RSF) models were developed with the help of hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics. The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the prognostic power of the LASSO Cox model, RSF model, and TNM staging. Based on the risk scores of the LASSO Cox and RSF models, we divided patients into low-risk and high-risk subgroups.Results We constructed two models in NESCC patients according to LASSO Cox regression and RSF models. The RSF model reached a C-index of 0.841 (95% CI: 0.792–0.889) in the primary cohort and 0.880 (95% CI: 0.830–0.930) in the validation cohort, which was higher than the C-index of the LASSO Cox model 0.656 (95% CI: 0.580–0.732) and 0.632 (95% CI: 0.542–0.720) in the two cohorts. The integrated C/D area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for the LASSO Cox and RSF models were 0.701 and 0.861, respectively. In both two models, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the estimated restricted mean survival time (RMST) values indicated that the low-risk subgroup had a better prognostic outcome than the high-risk subgroup (p < 0.05).Conclusions The RSF model has better prediction power than the LASSO Cox and the TNM staging models. It has a guiding value for the choice of individualized treatment in patients with NESCC.
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spelling doaj-art-0459a9143f8e41c28a3d40c86b3aea3d2025-08-20T02:09:51ZengTaylor & Francis GroupAnnals of Medicine0785-38901365-20602025-12-0157110.1080/07853890.2025.2483985Establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patientsNing Xue0Xiaoyan Wen1Qian Wang2Yong Shen3Yuanye Qu4Qingxia Xu5Shulin Chen6Jing Chen7Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University and Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou Key Laboratory of Digestive System Tumor Marker Diagnosis, Zhengzhou, P. R. ChinaCentral Sterilization Supply Department, The Guanghua Stomatological College of Sun Yat-sen University, Hospital of Stomatology, SunYat-sen University, Guangzhou, P. R. ChinaDepartment of radiation oncology, China–Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, P.R. ChinaDepartment of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University and Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou Key Laboratory of Digestive System Tumor Marker Diagnosis, Zhengzhou, P. R. ChinaDepartment of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University and Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou Key Laboratory of Digestive System Tumor Marker Diagnosis, Zhengzhou, P. R. ChinaDepartment of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University and Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou Key Laboratory of Digestive System Tumor Marker Diagnosis, Zhengzhou, P. R. ChinaState Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Clinical Laboratory, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University and Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou Key Laboratory of Digestive System Tumor Marker Diagnosis, Zhengzhou, P. R. ChinaBackground This study aimed to construct a novel model and validate its predictive power in non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (NESCC) patients.Methods This retrospective study included 151 patients between October 2006 and September 2016. The LASSO Cox and Random Survival Forest (RSF) models were developed with the help of hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics. The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the prognostic power of the LASSO Cox model, RSF model, and TNM staging. Based on the risk scores of the LASSO Cox and RSF models, we divided patients into low-risk and high-risk subgroups.Results We constructed two models in NESCC patients according to LASSO Cox regression and RSF models. The RSF model reached a C-index of 0.841 (95% CI: 0.792–0.889) in the primary cohort and 0.880 (95% CI: 0.830–0.930) in the validation cohort, which was higher than the C-index of the LASSO Cox model 0.656 (95% CI: 0.580–0.732) and 0.632 (95% CI: 0.542–0.720) in the two cohorts. The integrated C/D area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for the LASSO Cox and RSF models were 0.701 and 0.861, respectively. In both two models, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the estimated restricted mean survival time (RMST) values indicated that the low-risk subgroup had a better prognostic outcome than the high-risk subgroup (p < 0.05).Conclusions The RSF model has better prediction power than the LASSO Cox and the TNM staging models. It has a guiding value for the choice of individualized treatment in patients with NESCC.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/07853890.2025.2483985LASSO Cox modelnon-esophageal squamous cell carcinomaprognostic modelRSF model
spellingShingle Ning Xue
Xiaoyan Wen
Qian Wang
Yong Shen
Yuanye Qu
Qingxia Xu
Shulin Chen
Jing Chen
Establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients
Annals of Medicine
LASSO Cox model
non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
prognostic model
RSF model
title Establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients
title_full Establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients
title_fullStr Establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients
title_full_unstemmed Establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients
title_short Establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients
title_sort establishing and validating models integrated with hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics for the prognosis of non esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients
topic LASSO Cox model
non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
prognostic model
RSF model
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/07853890.2025.2483985
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