Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS
Abstract The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is the next generation modeling infrastructure under development for NOAA's operational numerical weather/climate predictions. This study is the first attempt with UFS for seasonal predictions application. In particular, 9‐month hindcasts are performed...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102392 |
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| _version_ | 1850077830109462528 |
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| author | Jieshun Zhu Wanqiu Wang Yanyun Liu Arun Kumar David DeWitt |
| author_facet | Jieshun Zhu Wanqiu Wang Yanyun Liu Arun Kumar David DeWitt |
| author_sort | Jieshun Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is the next generation modeling infrastructure under development for NOAA's operational numerical weather/climate predictions. This study is the first attempt with UFS for seasonal predictions application. In particular, 9‐month hindcasts are performed starting from every month during 2007–2020. The UFS performance in predicting Arctic sea ice was compared to hindcasts by (a) the current operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and (b) an experimental sea ice prediction system (CFSm5) at NOAA. Evaluations indicate that UFS demonstrates consistently improved skills than both CFSv2 and CFSm5 in seasonal sea ice predictions, together with more realistic climatological sea ice distributions. Diagnostics suggest that the better climatological sea ice distributions in UFS is related to its atmospheric states simulated with FV3, the atmospheric component of UFS, and reinforced by associated ocean circulations. In addition, applications of the multi‐model ensemble strategy do not present skill improvements over the UFS forecasts alone. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-03c3bedae35d4b5ab95f4a8ee117d8b7 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-03c3bedae35d4b5ab95f4a8ee117d8b72025-08-20T02:45:43ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072023-04-01507n/an/a10.1029/2022GL102392Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFSJieshun Zhu0Wanqiu Wang1Yanyun Liu2Arun Kumar3David DeWitt4Climate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP College Park MD USAClimate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP College Park MD USAClimate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP College Park MD USAClimate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP College Park MD USAClimate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP College Park MD USAAbstract The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is the next generation modeling infrastructure under development for NOAA's operational numerical weather/climate predictions. This study is the first attempt with UFS for seasonal predictions application. In particular, 9‐month hindcasts are performed starting from every month during 2007–2020. The UFS performance in predicting Arctic sea ice was compared to hindcasts by (a) the current operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and (b) an experimental sea ice prediction system (CFSm5) at NOAA. Evaluations indicate that UFS demonstrates consistently improved skills than both CFSv2 and CFSm5 in seasonal sea ice predictions, together with more realistic climatological sea ice distributions. Diagnostics suggest that the better climatological sea ice distributions in UFS is related to its atmospheric states simulated with FV3, the atmospheric component of UFS, and reinforced by associated ocean circulations. In addition, applications of the multi‐model ensemble strategy do not present skill improvements over the UFS forecasts alone.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102392UFSseasonal predictionArctic sea ice |
| spellingShingle | Jieshun Zhu Wanqiu Wang Yanyun Liu Arun Kumar David DeWitt Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS Geophysical Research Letters UFS seasonal prediction Arctic sea ice |
| title | Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS |
| title_full | Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS |
| title_fullStr | Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS |
| title_full_unstemmed | Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS |
| title_short | Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS |
| title_sort | advances in seasonal predictions of arctic sea ice with noaa ufs |
| topic | UFS seasonal prediction Arctic sea ice |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102392 |
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