Are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions? A scoping review on affective forecasting

Objective In this paper, we challenge the premise that patients are capable of accurately predicting their emotional response or quality of life in anticipation of health changes. Our goal was to systematically review the published empirical evidence related to the reliability of affective forecasti...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Y M Smulders, R Otten, Claudi Bockting, G J van den Bosch, R A N Roos
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2021-12-01
Series:BMJ Open
Online Access:https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053370.full
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850245785653870592
author Y M Smulders
R Otten
Claudi Bockting
G J van den Bosch
R A N Roos
author_facet Y M Smulders
R Otten
Claudi Bockting
G J van den Bosch
R A N Roos
author_sort Y M Smulders
collection DOAJ
description Objective In this paper, we challenge the premise that patients are capable of accurately predicting their emotional response or quality of life in anticipation of health changes. Our goal was to systematically review the published empirical evidence related to the reliability of affective forecasting in the context of medical conditions.Design Scoping review.Setting We conducted a search string using both simple search terms as well as MeSH terms and searched the electronic databases of PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane up to April 2021.Participants We initially selected 5726 articles. Empirical studies reporting on predicted and/or observed emotions or quality of life concerning deterioration, improvement in health or chronic illnesses were included. Furthermore, empirical studies of healthy individuals predicting emotional response or quality of life compared with patients reflecting on emotions or quality of life concerning deterioration or improvement in health or chronic illnesses were also included. Studies on healthy participants, psychiatric patients and non-English articles were excluded.Results 7 articles were included in this review. We found that patients generally tend to systematically exaggerate both anticipated happiness and sorrow/grief after health improvement and deterioration, respectively.Conclusion Patients are less adept in predicting emotional response or quality of life regarding to health changes than we are inclined to assume. We discuss several biases which could explain this phenomenon. Our findings are relevant in the context of treatment decisions, advanced care planning and advanced care directives.
format Article
id doaj-art-03469f831eaf4cf390519056e4cb578f
institution OA Journals
issn 2044-6055
language English
publishDate 2021-12-01
publisher BMJ Publishing Group
record_format Article
series BMJ Open
spelling doaj-art-03469f831eaf4cf390519056e4cb578f2025-08-20T01:59:21ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552021-12-01111210.1136/bmjopen-2021-053370Are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions? A scoping review on affective forecastingY M Smulders0R Otten1Claudi Bockting2G J van den Bosch3R A N Roos4Internal Medicine, Amsterdam UMC Locatie VUmc, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsAmsterdam UMC Locatie VUmc, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsDepartment of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, Location AMC, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsNoordwest Ziekenhuisgroep, Alkmaar, The NetherlandsUWV, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsObjective In this paper, we challenge the premise that patients are capable of accurately predicting their emotional response or quality of life in anticipation of health changes. Our goal was to systematically review the published empirical evidence related to the reliability of affective forecasting in the context of medical conditions.Design Scoping review.Setting We conducted a search string using both simple search terms as well as MeSH terms and searched the electronic databases of PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane up to April 2021.Participants We initially selected 5726 articles. Empirical studies reporting on predicted and/or observed emotions or quality of life concerning deterioration, improvement in health or chronic illnesses were included. Furthermore, empirical studies of healthy individuals predicting emotional response or quality of life compared with patients reflecting on emotions or quality of life concerning deterioration or improvement in health or chronic illnesses were also included. Studies on healthy participants, psychiatric patients and non-English articles were excluded.Results 7 articles were included in this review. We found that patients generally tend to systematically exaggerate both anticipated happiness and sorrow/grief after health improvement and deterioration, respectively.Conclusion Patients are less adept in predicting emotional response or quality of life regarding to health changes than we are inclined to assume. We discuss several biases which could explain this phenomenon. Our findings are relevant in the context of treatment decisions, advanced care planning and advanced care directives.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053370.full
spellingShingle Y M Smulders
R Otten
Claudi Bockting
G J van den Bosch
R A N Roos
Are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions? A scoping review on affective forecasting
BMJ Open
title Are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions? A scoping review on affective forecasting
title_full Are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions? A scoping review on affective forecasting
title_fullStr Are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions? A scoping review on affective forecasting
title_full_unstemmed Are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions? A scoping review on affective forecasting
title_short Are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions? A scoping review on affective forecasting
title_sort are patients accurate forecasters of their emotional response to medical conditions a scoping review on affective forecasting
url https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053370.full
work_keys_str_mv AT ymsmulders arepatientsaccurateforecastersoftheiremotionalresponsetomedicalconditionsascopingreviewonaffectiveforecasting
AT rotten arepatientsaccurateforecastersoftheiremotionalresponsetomedicalconditionsascopingreviewonaffectiveforecasting
AT claudibockting arepatientsaccurateforecastersoftheiremotionalresponsetomedicalconditionsascopingreviewonaffectiveforecasting
AT gjvandenbosch arepatientsaccurateforecastersoftheiremotionalresponsetomedicalconditionsascopingreviewonaffectiveforecasting
AT ranroos arepatientsaccurateforecastersoftheiremotionalresponsetomedicalconditionsascopingreviewonaffectiveforecasting