Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period Earthquakes
Abstract Accelerating rates of quasiperiodic “drumbeat” long‐period earthquakes (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Marko...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2018-02-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076429 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849321377858846720 |
|---|---|
| author | Andrew F. Bell Mark Naylor Stephen Hernandez Ian G. Main H. Elizabeth Gaunt Patricia Mothes Mario Ruiz |
| author_facet | Andrew F. Bell Mark Naylor Stephen Hernandez Ian G. Main H. Elizabeth Gaunt Patricia Mothes Mario Ruiz |
| author_sort | Andrew F. Bell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Accelerating rates of quasiperiodic “drumbeat” long‐period earthquakes (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo gamma point process methodology to investigate an exceptionally well‐developed sequence of drumbeat LPs preceding a recent large vulcanian explosion at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For more than 24 hr, LP rates increased according to the inverse power law trend predicted by material failure theory, and with a retrospectively forecast failure time that agrees with the eruption onset within error. LPs resulted from repeated activation of a single characteristic source driven by accelerating loading, rather than a distributed failure process, showing that similar precursory trends can emerge from quite different underlying physics. Nevertheless, such sequences have clear potential for improving forecasts of eruptions at Tungurahua and analogous volcanoes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-033ef6db797d4ff4bc8a848996db56e3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-033ef6db797d4ff4bc8a848996db56e32025-08-20T03:49:46ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072018-02-014531339134810.1002/2017GL076429Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period EarthquakesAndrew F. Bell0Mark Naylor1Stephen Hernandez2Ian G. Main3H. Elizabeth Gaunt4Patricia Mothes5Mario Ruiz6School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UKSchool of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UKInstituto Geofísico Escuela Politécnica Nacional Quito EcuadorSchool of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UKInstituto Geofísico Escuela Politécnica Nacional Quito EcuadorInstituto Geofísico Escuela Politécnica Nacional Quito EcuadorInstituto Geofísico Escuela Politécnica Nacional Quito EcuadorAbstract Accelerating rates of quasiperiodic “drumbeat” long‐period earthquakes (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo gamma point process methodology to investigate an exceptionally well‐developed sequence of drumbeat LPs preceding a recent large vulcanian explosion at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For more than 24 hr, LP rates increased according to the inverse power law trend predicted by material failure theory, and with a retrospectively forecast failure time that agrees with the eruption onset within error. LPs resulted from repeated activation of a single characteristic source driven by accelerating loading, rather than a distributed failure process, showing that similar precursory trends can emerge from quite different underlying physics. Nevertheless, such sequences have clear potential for improving forecasts of eruptions at Tungurahua and analogous volcanoes.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076429volcanic earthquakeslong‐period earthquakeseruption precursorseruption forecasts |
| spellingShingle | Andrew F. Bell Mark Naylor Stephen Hernandez Ian G. Main H. Elizabeth Gaunt Patricia Mothes Mario Ruiz Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period Earthquakes Geophysical Research Letters volcanic earthquakes long‐period earthquakes eruption precursors eruption forecasts |
| title | Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period Earthquakes |
| title_full | Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period Earthquakes |
| title_fullStr | Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period Earthquakes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period Earthquakes |
| title_short | Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period Earthquakes |
| title_sort | volcanic eruption forecasts from accelerating rates of drumbeat long period earthquakes |
| topic | volcanic earthquakes long‐period earthquakes eruption precursors eruption forecasts |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076429 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT andrewfbell volcaniceruptionforecastsfromacceleratingratesofdrumbeatlongperiodearthquakes AT marknaylor volcaniceruptionforecastsfromacceleratingratesofdrumbeatlongperiodearthquakes AT stephenhernandez volcaniceruptionforecastsfromacceleratingratesofdrumbeatlongperiodearthquakes AT iangmain volcaniceruptionforecastsfromacceleratingratesofdrumbeatlongperiodearthquakes AT helizabethgaunt volcaniceruptionforecastsfromacceleratingratesofdrumbeatlongperiodearthquakes AT patriciamothes volcaniceruptionforecastsfromacceleratingratesofdrumbeatlongperiodearthquakes AT marioruiz volcaniceruptionforecastsfromacceleratingratesofdrumbeatlongperiodearthquakes |