Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses

Abstract Seawater intrusion threatens groundwater resources in coastal regions, including southern Baldwin County, Alabama, where the freshwater-saltwater interface dynamics remain poorly understood. To address this gap, this study uses combined physics-based and machine-learning models to quantify...

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Main Authors: Hossein Gholizadeh, T. Prabhakar Clement, Christopher T. Green, Geoffrey R. Tick, Alain M. Plattner, Yong Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06613-6
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author Hossein Gholizadeh
T. Prabhakar Clement
Christopher T. Green
Geoffrey R. Tick
Alain M. Plattner
Yong Zhang
author_facet Hossein Gholizadeh
T. Prabhakar Clement
Christopher T. Green
Geoffrey R. Tick
Alain M. Plattner
Yong Zhang
author_sort Hossein Gholizadeh
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Seawater intrusion threatens groundwater resources in coastal regions, including southern Baldwin County, Alabama, where the freshwater-saltwater interface dynamics remain poorly understood. To address this gap, this study uses combined physics-based and machine-learning models to quantify seawater intrusion caused by natural (storm surges) and anthropogenic (human activities) perturbations. The long short-term memory network and wavelet analysis were used to assess vertical aquifer vulnerabilities, revealing that the shallow part of the Coastal lowlands aquifer system (CL1) in the southern Baldwin County region is more susceptible to sea level rise and groundwater extraction than deeper aquifers. Based on these findings, a cross-sectional numerical model (physics approach) for the CL1 aquifer was developed to evaluate tidal and storm surge effects, using Tropical Storm Claudette (June 2021) as a case study. Results showed that tidal fluctuations had a minimal impact on the saltwater-freshwater interface location, whereas storm surges caused substantial inland movement, with effects lasting for nine months. The steady-state version of the three-dimensional (3D) physical model predicted seawater intrusion across the entire area, and convolutional neural network-based modeling further validated the model results. The 3D physical model was also applied to a smaller area to assess human impact on the saltwater interface due to two groundwater pumping scenarios (± 50% of the baseline pumping rate). Results revealed that a 50% increase in groundwater withdrawals caused seawater to advance ~ 320 m inland, whereas a 50% reduction led to a ~ 270-meter retreat. This study highlights the vulnerability of Alabama’s shallow coastal aquifers to seawater intrusion due to storm surges and human activities, and demonstrates that combining physics-based models with machine learning approaches can improve groundwater predictions, though its accuracy depends on the availability of site-specific data.
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spelling doaj-art-02fa063e90c842cdbb72546e7a67ab2d2025-08-20T04:01:26ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115111810.1038/s41598-025-06613-6Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stressesHossein Gholizadeh0T. Prabhakar Clement1Christopher T. Green2Geoffrey R. Tick3Alain M. Plattner4Yong Zhang5Department of Geological Sciences, University of AlabamaDepartment of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, University of AlabamaWater Resources Mission Area, U.S. Geological SurveyDepartment of Geological Sciences, University of AlabamaDepartment of Geological Sciences, University of AlabamaDepartment of Geological Sciences, University of AlabamaAbstract Seawater intrusion threatens groundwater resources in coastal regions, including southern Baldwin County, Alabama, where the freshwater-saltwater interface dynamics remain poorly understood. To address this gap, this study uses combined physics-based and machine-learning models to quantify seawater intrusion caused by natural (storm surges) and anthropogenic (human activities) perturbations. The long short-term memory network and wavelet analysis were used to assess vertical aquifer vulnerabilities, revealing that the shallow part of the Coastal lowlands aquifer system (CL1) in the southern Baldwin County region is more susceptible to sea level rise and groundwater extraction than deeper aquifers. Based on these findings, a cross-sectional numerical model (physics approach) for the CL1 aquifer was developed to evaluate tidal and storm surge effects, using Tropical Storm Claudette (June 2021) as a case study. Results showed that tidal fluctuations had a minimal impact on the saltwater-freshwater interface location, whereas storm surges caused substantial inland movement, with effects lasting for nine months. The steady-state version of the three-dimensional (3D) physical model predicted seawater intrusion across the entire area, and convolutional neural network-based modeling further validated the model results. The 3D physical model was also applied to a smaller area to assess human impact on the saltwater interface due to two groundwater pumping scenarios (± 50% of the baseline pumping rate). Results revealed that a 50% increase in groundwater withdrawals caused seawater to advance ~ 320 m inland, whereas a 50% reduction led to a ~ 270-meter retreat. This study highlights the vulnerability of Alabama’s shallow coastal aquifers to seawater intrusion due to storm surges and human activities, and demonstrates that combining physics-based models with machine learning approaches can improve groundwater predictions, though its accuracy depends on the availability of site-specific data.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06613-6Seawater intrusionPhysical modelMachine learningStorm surgePumping
spellingShingle Hossein Gholizadeh
T. Prabhakar Clement
Christopher T. Green
Geoffrey R. Tick
Alain M. Plattner
Yong Zhang
Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses
Scientific Reports
Seawater intrusion
Physical model
Machine learning
Storm surge
Pumping
title Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses
title_full Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses
title_fullStr Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses
title_full_unstemmed Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses
title_short Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses
title_sort modeling seawater intrusion along the alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses
topic Seawater intrusion
Physical model
Machine learning
Storm surge
Pumping
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06613-6
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