MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA)
Transportation has an important role in supporting the mobility of people in Indonesia. Trains are included in the most widely used transportation category because they are effective and efficient, not only transporting passengers, trains also have a role in the distribution of goods. This study aim...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universitas Pattimura
2025-04-01
|
| Series: | Barekeng |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/14369 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849402314064920576 |
|---|---|
| author | Idrus Syahzaqi Sediono Sediono Aurellia Calista Anggakusuma Ezha Easyfa Wieldyanisa Sabrina Salsa Oktavia |
| author_facet | Idrus Syahzaqi Sediono Sediono Aurellia Calista Anggakusuma Ezha Easyfa Wieldyanisa Sabrina Salsa Oktavia |
| author_sort | Idrus Syahzaqi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Transportation has an important role in supporting the mobility of people in Indonesia. Trains are included in the most widely used transportation category because they are effective and efficient, not only transporting passengers, trains also have a role in the distribution of goods. This study aims to model and forecast total volume of goods transported through rail transportation in Indonesia using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Method because the data has seasonal trend. The data used comes from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) from January 2013 to April 2024. The results were obtained that the SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model is the best model with a MAPE value of 0.96% which is included in the category of accurate model. In addition to being an additional insight, this research can also be a reference in the management of railway transportation considering the number of uses both passengers, the distribution of goods that continue to increase, and can be recommendation for other research that same topic with it. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0292de1b771a41f0a9e58faeddb3b8ed |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1978-7227 2615-3017 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Pattimura |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Barekeng |
| spelling | doaj-art-0292de1b771a41f0a9e58faeddb3b8ed2025-08-20T03:37:34ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172025-04-0119282984210.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp829-84214369MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA)Idrus Syahzaqi0Sediono Sediono1Aurellia Calista Anggakusuma2Ezha Easyfa Wieldyanisa3Sabrina Salsa Oktavia4Statistics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaStatistics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaStatistics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaStatistics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaStatistics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaTransportation has an important role in supporting the mobility of people in Indonesia. Trains are included in the most widely used transportation category because they are effective and efficient, not only transporting passengers, trains also have a role in the distribution of goods. This study aims to model and forecast total volume of goods transported through rail transportation in Indonesia using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Method because the data has seasonal trend. The data used comes from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) from January 2013 to April 2024. The results were obtained that the SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model is the best model with a MAPE value of 0.96% which is included in the category of accurate model. In addition to being an additional insight, this research can also be a reference in the management of railway transportation considering the number of uses both passengers, the distribution of goods that continue to increase, and can be recommendation for other research that same topic with it.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/14369forecastingmapeseasonal autoregressive integrated moving averagetrain |
| spellingShingle | Idrus Syahzaqi Sediono Sediono Aurellia Calista Anggakusuma Ezha Easyfa Wieldyanisa Sabrina Salsa Oktavia MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) Barekeng forecasting mape seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average train |
| title | MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) |
| title_full | MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) |
| title_fullStr | MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) |
| title_full_unstemmed | MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) |
| title_short | MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) |
| title_sort | modeling and forecasting the total volume of goods transported by rail in indonesia using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average sarima |
| topic | forecasting mape seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average train |
| url | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/14369 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT idrussyahzaqi modelingandforecastingthetotalvolumeofgoodstransportedbyrailinindonesiausingseasonalautoregressiveintegratedmovingaveragesarima AT sedionosediono modelingandforecastingthetotalvolumeofgoodstransportedbyrailinindonesiausingseasonalautoregressiveintegratedmovingaveragesarima AT aurelliacalistaanggakusuma modelingandforecastingthetotalvolumeofgoodstransportedbyrailinindonesiausingseasonalautoregressiveintegratedmovingaveragesarima AT ezhaeasyfawieldyanisa modelingandforecastingthetotalvolumeofgoodstransportedbyrailinindonesiausingseasonalautoregressiveintegratedmovingaveragesarima AT sabrinasalsaoktavia modelingandforecastingthetotalvolumeofgoodstransportedbyrailinindonesiausingseasonalautoregressiveintegratedmovingaveragesarima |