Assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in China under different vaccination coverage scenarios: A modeling study

Cervical cancer caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection remains a significant public health challenge in China, where screening and HPV vaccination uptake fall well below World Health Organization’s (WHO) targets. This study aimed to assess the impact of gender-neutral vaccination (GNV) on ce...

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Main Authors: Ibrahim Diakite, Jeffrey Kyle, Sujian Situ, Wei (Vivian) Wang, Xingxing Zhang, Yin Wang, Rui Bian, Hai Bin Wu, Xu Sheng Wang, Ya-Ting Chen, Vincent Daniels
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2025-12-01
Series:Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics
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Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/21645515.2025.2528426
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author Ibrahim Diakite
Jeffrey Kyle
Sujian Situ
Wei (Vivian) Wang
Xingxing Zhang
Yin Wang
Rui Bian
Hai Bin Wu
Xu Sheng Wang
Ya-Ting Chen
Vincent Daniels
author_facet Ibrahim Diakite
Jeffrey Kyle
Sujian Situ
Wei (Vivian) Wang
Xingxing Zhang
Yin Wang
Rui Bian
Hai Bin Wu
Xu Sheng Wang
Ya-Ting Chen
Vincent Daniels
author_sort Ibrahim Diakite
collection DOAJ
description Cervical cancer caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection remains a significant public health challenge in China, where screening and HPV vaccination uptake fall well below World Health Organization’s (WHO) targets. This study aimed to assess the impact of gender-neutral vaccination (GNV) on cervical cancer elimination in China at a range of vaccination coverage rates (VCRs) and screening uptake rates. Using a model to project cervical cancer incidence and cases in China over 100 years, we evaluated different vaccination strategies using either a bivalent (2vHPV) or nonavalent (9vHPV) vaccine and estimated the time taken to reach the WHO’s elimination threshold of 4 cases per 100,000 women. Results showed that all GNV strategies were more effective than the corresponding girls-only strategy at preventing cervical cancer, and all 9vHPV-based strategies were more effective than the corresponding 2vHPV-based strategies, especially at lower female VCRs. At a 70% screening uptake and a female VCR of 60%, the fastest predicted disease elimination time (65 years) was achieved using GNV-9vHPV; this timeline was accelerated to 56 years at a female VCR of 90%. The time to elimination using GNV-9vHPV could be accelerated by up to 6 years by adding a catch-up vaccination program or 7 years by increasing the screening rate. These results suggest that updating the current Chinese HPV vaccination program by including males and using a nonavalent vaccine, in conjunction with efforts to increase cervical cancer screening uptake, offers the fastest route to cervical cancer elimination in China, especially while VCRs remain low.
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spelling doaj-art-02898585615345db8a10e2da5659b9f32025-08-20T03:50:31ZengTaylor & Francis GroupHuman Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics2164-55152164-554X2025-12-0121110.1080/21645515.2025.2528426Assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in China under different vaccination coverage scenarios: A modeling studyIbrahim Diakite0Jeffrey Kyle1Sujian Situ2Wei (Vivian) Wang3Xingxing Zhang4Yin Wang5Rui Bian6Hai Bin Wu7Xu Sheng Wang8Ya-Ting Chen9Vincent Daniels10Health Economic and Decision Sciences, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USAHealth Economic and Decision Sciences, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USAHealth Economics and Outcomes Research, MSD China Holding Co., Ltd., Shanghai, ChinaOutcomes Research, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USAMRL Global Medical Affairs, MSD China Holding Co., Ltd., Shanghai, ChinaMRL Global Medical Affairs, MSD China Holding Co., Ltd., Shanghai, ChinaMRL Global Medical Affairs, MSD China Holding Co., Ltd., Shanghai, ChinaMRL Global Medical Affairs, MSD China Holding Co., Ltd., Shanghai, ChinaHealth Economics and Outcomes Research, MSD China Holding Co., Ltd., Shanghai, ChinaOutcomes Research, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USAHealth Economic and Decision Sciences, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USACervical cancer caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection remains a significant public health challenge in China, where screening and HPV vaccination uptake fall well below World Health Organization’s (WHO) targets. This study aimed to assess the impact of gender-neutral vaccination (GNV) on cervical cancer elimination in China at a range of vaccination coverage rates (VCRs) and screening uptake rates. Using a model to project cervical cancer incidence and cases in China over 100 years, we evaluated different vaccination strategies using either a bivalent (2vHPV) or nonavalent (9vHPV) vaccine and estimated the time taken to reach the WHO’s elimination threshold of 4 cases per 100,000 women. Results showed that all GNV strategies were more effective than the corresponding girls-only strategy at preventing cervical cancer, and all 9vHPV-based strategies were more effective than the corresponding 2vHPV-based strategies, especially at lower female VCRs. At a 70% screening uptake and a female VCR of 60%, the fastest predicted disease elimination time (65 years) was achieved using GNV-9vHPV; this timeline was accelerated to 56 years at a female VCR of 90%. The time to elimination using GNV-9vHPV could be accelerated by up to 6 years by adding a catch-up vaccination program or 7 years by increasing the screening rate. These results suggest that updating the current Chinese HPV vaccination program by including males and using a nonavalent vaccine, in conjunction with efforts to increase cervical cancer screening uptake, offers the fastest route to cervical cancer elimination in China, especially while VCRs remain low.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/21645515.2025.2528426Cervical cancerhuman papillomavirusHPV vaccinationgender-neutral vaccinationChina
spellingShingle Ibrahim Diakite
Jeffrey Kyle
Sujian Situ
Wei (Vivian) Wang
Xingxing Zhang
Yin Wang
Rui Bian
Hai Bin Wu
Xu Sheng Wang
Ya-Ting Chen
Vincent Daniels
Assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in China under different vaccination coverage scenarios: A modeling study
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics
Cervical cancer
human papillomavirus
HPV vaccination
gender-neutral vaccination
China
title Assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in China under different vaccination coverage scenarios: A modeling study
title_full Assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in China under different vaccination coverage scenarios: A modeling study
title_fullStr Assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in China under different vaccination coverage scenarios: A modeling study
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in China under different vaccination coverage scenarios: A modeling study
title_short Assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in China under different vaccination coverage scenarios: A modeling study
title_sort assessing the influence of male vaccination on cervical cancer elimination in china under different vaccination coverage scenarios a modeling study
topic Cervical cancer
human papillomavirus
HPV vaccination
gender-neutral vaccination
China
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/21645515.2025.2528426
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