Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research

Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research

Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. S...

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Main Authors: Denny M. Oliveira, Robert C. Allen, Livia R. Alves, Séan P. Blake, Brett A. Carter, Dibyendu Chakrabarty, Giulia D’Angelo, Kevin Delano, Ezequiel Echer, Cristian P. Ferradas, Matt G. Finley, Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt, Dan Gershman, Jesper W. Gjerloev, John Bosco Habarulema, Michael D. Hartinger, Rajkumar Hajra, Hisashi Hayakawa, Liisa Juusola, Karl M. Laundal, Robert J. Leamon, Michael Madelaire, Miguel Martínez‐Ledesma, Scott M. McIntosh, Yoshizumi Miyoshi, Mark B. Moldwin, Emmanuel Nahayo, Dibyendu Nandy, Bhosale Nilam, Katariina Nykyri, William R. Paterson, Mirko Piersanti, Ermanno Pietropaolo, Craig J. Rodger, Trunali Shah, Andy W. Smith, Nandita Srivastava, Bruce T. Tsurutani, S. Tulasi Ram, Lisa A. Upton, Bhaskara Veenadhari, Sergio Vidal‐Luengo, Ari Viljanen, Sarah K. Vines, Vipin K. Yadav, Jeng‐Hwa Yee, James W. Weygand, Eftyhia Zesta
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-08-01
Series:Space Weather
Subjects:
space weather
interplanetary shocks
machine learning
solar cycle 25
sunspot numbers
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003964
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Summary:Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting.
ISSN:1542-7390

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