THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA
The purpose of the paper is to investigate the impact of crude oil prices and domestic macroeconomic uncertainty on food prices in Serbia over the period 2007-2022. The methodological framework is based on cointegration analysis and the structural vector autoregressive model. The empirical results...
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Naučno društvo agrarnih ekonomista Balkana, Beograd; Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd i Akademija ekonomskih nauka, Bukurešt
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Ekonomika Poljoprivrede (1979) |
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| Online Access: | https://ea.bg.ac.rs/index.php/EA/article/view/2433 |
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| author | Zorica Mladenović Emilija Milošević |
| author_facet | Zorica Mladenović Emilija Milošević |
| author_sort | Zorica Mladenović |
| collection | DOAJ |
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The purpose of the paper is to investigate the impact of crude oil prices and domestic macroeconomic uncertainty on food prices in Serbia over the period 2007-2022. The methodological framework is based on cointegration analysis and the structural vector autoregressive model. The empirical results indicate significant and positive long term effects of uncertainty and oil prices on food prices. Over a one-year horizon, about one-third of the fluctuations in food prices can be attributed to the variability of shocks in uncertainty and oil prices, while their relative influence is slightly more than half after two years. The impact of uncertainty on food price variability peaks within six months, after which its influence diminishes. In contrast, the impact of oil prices gradually increases and becomes the dominant factor in the variability of food prices after a year and a half.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0269f75d58ab4dbea468a98145e8bbdb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0352-3462 2334-8453 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Naučno društvo agrarnih ekonomista Balkana, Beograd; Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd i Akademija ekonomskih nauka, Bukurešt |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ekonomika Poljoprivrede (1979) |
| spelling | doaj-art-0269f75d58ab4dbea468a98145e8bbdb2025-08-20T03:42:07ZengNaučno društvo agrarnih ekonomista Balkana, Beograd; Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd i Akademija ekonomskih nauka, BukureštEkonomika Poljoprivrede (1979)0352-34622334-84532025-03-0172110.59267/ekoPolj2501271MTHE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIAZorica Mladenović0Emilija Milošević1Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia The purpose of the paper is to investigate the impact of crude oil prices and domestic macroeconomic uncertainty on food prices in Serbia over the period 2007-2022. The methodological framework is based on cointegration analysis and the structural vector autoregressive model. The empirical results indicate significant and positive long term effects of uncertainty and oil prices on food prices. Over a one-year horizon, about one-third of the fluctuations in food prices can be attributed to the variability of shocks in uncertainty and oil prices, while their relative influence is slightly more than half after two years. The impact of uncertainty on food price variability peaks within six months, after which its influence diminishes. In contrast, the impact of oil prices gradually increases and becomes the dominant factor in the variability of food prices after a year and a half. https://ea.bg.ac.rs/index.php/EA/article/view/2433 food pricesmacroeconomic uncertaintyoil pricescointegration analysisSVAR model |
| spellingShingle | Zorica Mladenović Emilija Milošević THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA Ekonomika Poljoprivrede (1979) food prices macroeconomic uncertainty oil prices cointegration analysis SVAR model |
| title | THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA |
| title_full | THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA |
| title_fullStr | THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA |
| title_full_unstemmed | THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA |
| title_short | THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA |
| title_sort | impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and oil prices on food prices empirical evidence from serbia |
| topic | food prices macroeconomic uncertainty oil prices cointegration analysis SVAR model |
| url | https://ea.bg.ac.rs/index.php/EA/article/view/2433 |
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