Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanization

Urbanization develops with the goal of establishing improved and more sustainable habitats for residents. Environmental and social performance must be simultaneously monitored to ascertain whether regions are progressing towards or deviating from the safe and just space (SJS) in urbanization. Despit...

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Main Authors: Qin Zhou, Changgao Cheng, Zhou Fang, Shi Xue, Qiuya Zhao, Zhongde Huang, Jie Wang, Wei Jin, Chenjun Zhang, Yang Bai, Ni Geng, Hengquan Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-10-01
Series:Geography and Sustainability
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683925000707
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author Qin Zhou
Changgao Cheng
Zhou Fang
Shi Xue
Qiuya Zhao
Zhongde Huang
Jie Wang
Wei Jin
Chenjun Zhang
Yang Bai
Ni Geng
Hengquan Zhang
author_facet Qin Zhou
Changgao Cheng
Zhou Fang
Shi Xue
Qiuya Zhao
Zhongde Huang
Jie Wang
Wei Jin
Chenjun Zhang
Yang Bai
Ni Geng
Hengquan Zhang
author_sort Qin Zhou
collection DOAJ
description Urbanization develops with the goal of establishing improved and more sustainable habitats for residents. Environmental and social performance must be simultaneously monitored to ascertain whether regions are progressing towards or deviating from the safe and just space (SJS) in urbanization. Despite relevant studies, the absence of indicators that bridge ecological preservation and human well-beings renders dual monitoring challenging. This study bridged the gap by exploring the interactions between urbanization, ecosystem services (ESs), and basic water, energy, and food (WEF) needs within the SJS framework across China and its provinces. By quantifying the minimum and actual demands for freshwater withdrawal, carbon emissions, phosphorus emissions, and land use, as well as the supply of ESs into unified biophysical indicators, we found that: (1) China can meet the basic WEF needs for all from 2000 to 2020, but only water and land provisioning ESs can operate within the SJS. Carbon emissions surpassed the sequestration capacity in 2010, while phosphorus purification ES has consistently been unsafe. (2) The SJS performance in terms of ecological and social fulfilment exhibited scale differences and undergone changes with urbanization. Overall, no province in China can consistently operate within all SJSs. (3) In the process of urbanization, improvements in ecological protection and production practices in most provinces expanded the size of SJS, but the continuous increase in total demand failed to steer regions toward safer spaces. Our framework emphasized the common but differentiated pathways that regions at varying stages of urbanization navigate to achieve safety and justice. It also provides an applicable solution for regions aiming to pursue urban growth while maintaining ecological conservation and social justice, ultimately achieving sustainable development.
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spelling doaj-art-024357c403a84c4f89f26a2ff03584652025-08-20T03:51:49ZengElsevierGeography and Sustainability2666-68392025-10-016510033110.1016/j.geosus.2025.100331Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanizationQin Zhou0Changgao Cheng1Zhou Fang2Shi Xue3Qiuya Zhao4Zhongde Huang5Jie Wang6Wei Jin7Chenjun Zhang8Yang Bai9Ni Geng10Hengquan Zhang11Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo N2L3G1, CanadaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100020, ChinaCenter for Integrative Conservation & Yunnan Key Laboratory for Conservation of Tropical Rainforests and Asian Elephants, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xishuangbanna 666303, China; Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Southeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Menglun 666303, China; Corresponding author.Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana Illinois 61801, USABusiness School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; The Water Institute, University of Waterloo, Waterloo N2L 3G1, CanadaCenter for Integrative Conservation & Yunnan Key Laboratory for Conservation of Tropical Rainforests and Asian Elephants, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xishuangbanna 666303, China; Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Southeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Menglun 666303, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaCenter for Integrative Conservation & Yunnan Key Laboratory for Conservation of Tropical Rainforests and Asian Elephants, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xishuangbanna 666303, China; Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Southeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Menglun 666303, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaSchool of Sociology and Population Studies, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212100, ChinaCenter for Integrative Conservation & Yunnan Key Laboratory for Conservation of Tropical Rainforests and Asian Elephants, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xishuangbanna 666303, China; Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Southeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Menglun 666303, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaBusiness School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, ChinaBusiness School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, ChinaUrbanization develops with the goal of establishing improved and more sustainable habitats for residents. Environmental and social performance must be simultaneously monitored to ascertain whether regions are progressing towards or deviating from the safe and just space (SJS) in urbanization. Despite relevant studies, the absence of indicators that bridge ecological preservation and human well-beings renders dual monitoring challenging. This study bridged the gap by exploring the interactions between urbanization, ecosystem services (ESs), and basic water, energy, and food (WEF) needs within the SJS framework across China and its provinces. By quantifying the minimum and actual demands for freshwater withdrawal, carbon emissions, phosphorus emissions, and land use, as well as the supply of ESs into unified biophysical indicators, we found that: (1) China can meet the basic WEF needs for all from 2000 to 2020, but only water and land provisioning ESs can operate within the SJS. Carbon emissions surpassed the sequestration capacity in 2010, while phosphorus purification ES has consistently been unsafe. (2) The SJS performance in terms of ecological and social fulfilment exhibited scale differences and undergone changes with urbanization. Overall, no province in China can consistently operate within all SJSs. (3) In the process of urbanization, improvements in ecological protection and production practices in most provinces expanded the size of SJS, but the continuous increase in total demand failed to steer regions toward safer spaces. Our framework emphasized the common but differentiated pathways that regions at varying stages of urbanization navigate to achieve safety and justice. It also provides an applicable solution for regions aiming to pursue urban growth while maintaining ecological conservation and social justice, ultimately achieving sustainable development.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683925000707UrbanizationSafe and just spaceEcosystem servicesWater-energy-foodSustainability assessment
spellingShingle Qin Zhou
Changgao Cheng
Zhou Fang
Shi Xue
Qiuya Zhao
Zhongde Huang
Jie Wang
Wei Jin
Chenjun Zhang
Yang Bai
Ni Geng
Hengquan Zhang
Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanization
Geography and Sustainability
Urbanization
Safe and just space
Ecosystem services
Water-energy-food
Sustainability assessment
title Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanization
title_full Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanization
title_fullStr Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanization
title_full_unstemmed Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanization
title_short Urban flourish or peril: Navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in China’s urbanization
title_sort urban flourish or peril navigating the safe and just space through the lens of ecosystem services in china s urbanization
topic Urbanization
Safe and just space
Ecosystem services
Water-energy-food
Sustainability assessment
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683925000707
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