Estimating Driver Response Rates to Variable Message Signage at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport

We apply Bayesian Linear Regression to estimate the response rate of drivers to variable message signs at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, or SEA. Our approach uses vehicle speed and flow data measured at the entrances of the arrival and departure-ways of the airport terminal, and sign message...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Soumya Vasisht, Shushman Choudhury, Nawaf Nazir, Stephen Zoepf, Chase P Dowling
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Findings Press 2022-09-01
Series:Findings
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.38134
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Summary:We apply Bayesian Linear Regression to estimate the response rate of drivers to variable message signs at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, or SEA. Our approach uses vehicle speed and flow data measured at the entrances of the arrival and departure-ways of the airport terminal, and sign message data. Depending on the time of day, we estimate that between 5.5 and 9.1\% of drivers divert from departures to arrivals when the sign reads "departures full, use arrivals", and conversely, between 1.9 and 4.2\% of drivers divert from arrivals to departures. Though we lack counterfactual data (i.e., what would have happened had the diversionary treatment not been active), adopting a causal model that encodes time dependency with prior distributions rate can yield a measurable effect.
ISSN:2652-8800