Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability?
Abstract In this study, we investigate the drivers of observed multi‐decadal fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic surface temperatures using multiple large ensembles of climate simulations and single‐forcing ensembles. We find that the observed oscillation in Arctic surface temperature around a line...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090631 |
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| author | Mark R. England |
| author_facet | Mark R. England |
| author_sort | Mark R. England |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this study, we investigate the drivers of observed multi‐decadal fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic surface temperatures using multiple large ensembles of climate simulations and single‐forcing ensembles. We find that the observed oscillation in Arctic surface temperature around a linear trend since 1920 is a forced response to emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In contrast, we show that observed multi‐decadal Antarctic surface temperature fluctuations are partially related to Pacific decadal variability which influences the climate of West Antarctica. Lastly, we demonstrate that internally driven multi‐decadal fluctuations at the two poles are not systematically correlated in any climate model examined here, as had been previously suggested. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for understanding projections of Arctic and Antarctic surface climate of the coming decades. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-01928f0da12e4f43a94e95d269f8121c |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-01928f0da12e4f43a94e95d269f8121c2025-08-20T03:11:04ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072021-03-01486n/an/a10.1029/2020GL090631Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability?Mark R. England0Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography University of North Carolina Wilmington Wilmington NC USAAbstract In this study, we investigate the drivers of observed multi‐decadal fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic surface temperatures using multiple large ensembles of climate simulations and single‐forcing ensembles. We find that the observed oscillation in Arctic surface temperature around a linear trend since 1920 is a forced response to emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In contrast, we show that observed multi‐decadal Antarctic surface temperature fluctuations are partially related to Pacific decadal variability which influences the climate of West Antarctica. Lastly, we demonstrate that internally driven multi‐decadal fluctuations at the two poles are not systematically correlated in any climate model examined here, as had been previously suggested. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for understanding projections of Arctic and Antarctic surface climate of the coming decades.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090631aerosolsAntarcticArcticlarge ensemblespolar climate changesingle‐forcing ensembles |
| spellingShingle | Mark R. England Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability? Geophysical Research Letters aerosols Antarctic Arctic large ensembles polar climate change single‐forcing ensembles |
| title | Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability? |
| title_full | Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability? |
| title_fullStr | Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability? |
| title_short | Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability? |
| title_sort | are multi decadal fluctuations in arctic and antarctic surface temperatures a forced response to anthropogenic emissions or part of internal climate variability |
| topic | aerosols Antarctic Arctic large ensembles polar climate change single‐forcing ensembles |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090631 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT markrengland aremultidecadalfluctuationsinarcticandantarcticsurfacetemperaturesaforcedresponsetoanthropogenicemissionsorpartofinternalclimatevariability |