Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth?
Abstract We explore current variability and future projections of winter Arctic sea ice thickness and growth using data from climate models and satellite observations. Winter ice thickness in the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble compares well against thickness estimates from the Pa...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-12-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079223 |
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| _version_ | 1849727948646514688 |
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| author | Alek A. Petty Marika M. Holland David A. Bailey Nathan T. Kurtz |
| author_facet | Alek A. Petty Marika M. Holland David A. Bailey Nathan T. Kurtz |
| author_sort | Alek A. Petty |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We explore current variability and future projections of winter Arctic sea ice thickness and growth using data from climate models and satellite observations. Winter ice thickness in the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble compares well against thickness estimates from the Pan‐Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and CryoSat‐2, despite some significant regional differences—for example, a high thickness bias in Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble in the western Arctic. Differences across the available CryoSat‐2 thickness products hinder more robust validation efforts. We assess the importance of the negative conductive feedback of sea ice growth (thinner ice grows faster) by regressing October atmosphere/ice/ocean conditions against winter ice growth. Our regressions demonstrate the importance of a strong negative conductive feedback process in our current climate, which increases winter growth for thinner initial ice, but indicate that later in the 21st century this negative feedback is overwhelmed by variations in the fall atmosphere/ocean state. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0151642d2aa5412c8b60ef37cc2e132c |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-0151642d2aa5412c8b60ef37cc2e132c2025-08-20T03:09:42ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072018-12-01452312,92212,93010.1029/2018GL079223Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth?Alek A. Petty0Marika M. Holland1David A. Bailey2Nathan T. KurtzCryospheric Sciences Laboratory NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAAbstract We explore current variability and future projections of winter Arctic sea ice thickness and growth using data from climate models and satellite observations. Winter ice thickness in the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble compares well against thickness estimates from the Pan‐Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and CryoSat‐2, despite some significant regional differences—for example, a high thickness bias in Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble in the western Arctic. Differences across the available CryoSat‐2 thickness products hinder more robust validation efforts. We assess the importance of the negative conductive feedback of sea ice growth (thinner ice grows faster) by regressing October atmosphere/ice/ocean conditions against winter ice growth. Our regressions demonstrate the importance of a strong negative conductive feedback process in our current climate, which increases winter growth for thinner initial ice, but indicate that later in the 21st century this negative feedback is overwhelmed by variations in the fall atmosphere/ocean state.https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079223Arcticsea iceclimate modelssatellite observations |
| spellingShingle | Alek A. Petty Marika M. Holland David A. Bailey Nathan T. Kurtz Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth? Geophysical Research Letters Arctic sea ice climate models satellite observations |
| title | Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth? |
| title_full | Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth? |
| title_fullStr | Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth? |
| title_short | Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth? |
| title_sort | warm arctic increased winter sea ice growth |
| topic | Arctic sea ice climate models satellite observations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079223 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alekapetty warmarcticincreasedwinterseaicegrowth AT marikamholland warmarcticincreasedwinterseaicegrowth AT davidabailey warmarcticincreasedwinterseaicegrowth AT nathantkurtz warmarcticincreasedwinterseaicegrowth |