Predicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using CA-Markov modelling and GIS techniques
Abstract This study addresses the significant issue of rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Lahore District, which is critical for supporting ecological management and sustainable land-use planning. Understanding these changes is crucial for mitigating adverse environmental impacts and pr...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87796-w |
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| author | Zainab Tahir Muhammad Haseeb Syed Amer Mahmood Saira Batool M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud Sajid Ullah Aqil Tariq |
| author_facet | Zainab Tahir Muhammad Haseeb Syed Amer Mahmood Saira Batool M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud Sajid Ullah Aqil Tariq |
| author_sort | Zainab Tahir |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study addresses the significant issue of rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Lahore District, which is critical for supporting ecological management and sustainable land-use planning. Understanding these changes is crucial for mitigating adverse environmental impacts and promoting sustainable development. The main goal is to evaluate historical LULC changes from 1994 to 2024 and forecast future trends for 2034 and 2044 utilizing the CA-Markov hybrid model combined with GIS methodologies. Landsat images from various sensors (TM, OLI) were employed for supervised classification, attaining high accuracy (> 90%). Historical LULC changes from 1994 to 2024 were analyzed, revealing significant transformations in Lahore. The build-up area expanded by 359.8 km², indicating rapid urbanization, while vegetation cover decreased by 198.7 km² and barren lands by 158.5 km². Water bodies remained relatively stable during this period. Future LULC trends were projected for 2034 and 2044 using the CA-Markov hybrid model (CA-MHM), which achieved a high prediction accuracy with a kappa coefficient of 0.92. The research indicated significant urban growth at the expense of vegetation and barren land. Future forecasts suggest ongoing urbanization, underscoring the necessity for sustainable land management techniques. This research is a significant framework for urban planners, providing insights that combine development with ecological conservation. The results highlight the necessity of incorporating predictive models into urban policy to promote sustainable development and environmental preservation in quickly changing areas such as Lahore. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-00cf807efe834b1eba82f2a8e2f1a839 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-00cf807efe834b1eba82f2a8e2f1a8392025-08-20T02:25:35ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115112310.1038/s41598-025-87796-wPredicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using CA-Markov modelling and GIS techniquesZainab Tahir0Muhammad Haseeb1Syed Amer Mahmood2Saira Batool3M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud4Sajid Ullah5Aqil Tariq6Institute of Space Science, University of PunjabInstitute of Space Science, University of PunjabInstitute of Space Science, University of PunjabCentre For Integrated Mountain Research, University of the PunjabDepartment of Software Engineering, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud UniversityDepartment of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Nangarhar UniversityDepartment of Wildlife Fisheries and Aquaculture, College of Forest Resources, Mississippi State UniversityAbstract This study addresses the significant issue of rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Lahore District, which is critical for supporting ecological management and sustainable land-use planning. Understanding these changes is crucial for mitigating adverse environmental impacts and promoting sustainable development. The main goal is to evaluate historical LULC changes from 1994 to 2024 and forecast future trends for 2034 and 2044 utilizing the CA-Markov hybrid model combined with GIS methodologies. Landsat images from various sensors (TM, OLI) were employed for supervised classification, attaining high accuracy (> 90%). Historical LULC changes from 1994 to 2024 were analyzed, revealing significant transformations in Lahore. The build-up area expanded by 359.8 km², indicating rapid urbanization, while vegetation cover decreased by 198.7 km² and barren lands by 158.5 km². Water bodies remained relatively stable during this period. Future LULC trends were projected for 2034 and 2044 using the CA-Markov hybrid model (CA-MHM), which achieved a high prediction accuracy with a kappa coefficient of 0.92. The research indicated significant urban growth at the expense of vegetation and barren land. Future forecasts suggest ongoing urbanization, underscoring the necessity for sustainable land management techniques. This research is a significant framework for urban planners, providing insights that combine development with ecological conservation. The results highlight the necessity of incorporating predictive models into urban policy to promote sustainable development and environmental preservation in quickly changing areas such as Lahore.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87796-wLULCCA-Markov ModelRemote sensingGISSustainable Land ManagementLahore |
| spellingShingle | Zainab Tahir Muhammad Haseeb Syed Amer Mahmood Saira Batool M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud Sajid Ullah Aqil Tariq Predicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using CA-Markov modelling and GIS techniques Scientific Reports LULC CA-Markov Model Remote sensing GIS Sustainable Land Management Lahore |
| title | Predicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using CA-Markov modelling and GIS techniques |
| title_full | Predicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using CA-Markov modelling and GIS techniques |
| title_fullStr | Predicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using CA-Markov modelling and GIS techniques |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using CA-Markov modelling and GIS techniques |
| title_short | Predicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using CA-Markov modelling and GIS techniques |
| title_sort | predicting land use and land cover changes for sustainable land management using ca markov modelling and gis techniques |
| topic | LULC CA-Markov Model Remote sensing GIS Sustainable Land Management Lahore |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87796-w |
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