Role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the Tibetan Plateau in 30-day extended-range forecast of East Asian precipitation in early summer
Abstract The influence of the thermodynamic forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the Asian summer monsoon remains controversial because the role of elevated heating across the TP remains unclear at multiple time scales. At the extended-range scale, the boundary forcing is more important than the i...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
|
| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00931-2 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1823862626779660288 |
|---|---|
| author | Bian He Xinyu He Yimin Liu Guoxiong Wu Qing Bao Wenting Hu Chen Sheng Shijian Feng |
| author_facet | Bian He Xinyu He Yimin Liu Guoxiong Wu Qing Bao Wenting Hu Chen Sheng Shijian Feng |
| author_sort | Bian He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The influence of the thermodynamic forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the Asian summer monsoon remains controversial because the role of elevated heating across the TP remains unclear at multiple time scales. At the extended-range scale, the boundary forcing is more important than the initial field in the forecast process. In this study, we investigated the role of subdaily thermodynamic forcing across the TP in generating 30-day predictions of precipitation in East Asia by conducting a series of hindcast experiments. The surface potential vorticity forcing was used to identify typical years when the TP forcings were extremely strong or weak. The results indicated that the subdaily thermal forcing of the TP was very important for improving the East Asian precipitation forecast accuracy, especially for predictions longer than 14 days in June 2022, when diffusion heating is very strong and can develop over the TP. In such a case, the corrected TP heating could not only correct for low-level water vapor transport but also modular uplevel circulation, which could propagate downstream, thus favoring the correct prediction of precipitation over East Asia. However, in the other cases, the individual influences of thermal perturbations across the TP are not the only important factors. These findings reveal ways to improve the extended-range forecast skill over East Asia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-00c79f62ba3d497b9c95d7e87ea8a765 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-00c79f62ba3d497b9c95d7e87ea8a7652025-02-09T12:27:13ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-02-018111510.1038/s41612-025-00931-2Role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the Tibetan Plateau in 30-day extended-range forecast of East Asian precipitation in early summerBian He0Xinyu He1Yimin Liu2Guoxiong Wu3Qing Bao4Wenting Hu5Chen Sheng6Shijian Feng7Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract The influence of the thermodynamic forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the Asian summer monsoon remains controversial because the role of elevated heating across the TP remains unclear at multiple time scales. At the extended-range scale, the boundary forcing is more important than the initial field in the forecast process. In this study, we investigated the role of subdaily thermodynamic forcing across the TP in generating 30-day predictions of precipitation in East Asia by conducting a series of hindcast experiments. The surface potential vorticity forcing was used to identify typical years when the TP forcings were extremely strong or weak. The results indicated that the subdaily thermal forcing of the TP was very important for improving the East Asian precipitation forecast accuracy, especially for predictions longer than 14 days in June 2022, when diffusion heating is very strong and can develop over the TP. In such a case, the corrected TP heating could not only correct for low-level water vapor transport but also modular uplevel circulation, which could propagate downstream, thus favoring the correct prediction of precipitation over East Asia. However, in the other cases, the individual influences of thermal perturbations across the TP are not the only important factors. These findings reveal ways to improve the extended-range forecast skill over East Asia.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00931-2 |
| spellingShingle | Bian He Xinyu He Yimin Liu Guoxiong Wu Qing Bao Wenting Hu Chen Sheng Shijian Feng Role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the Tibetan Plateau in 30-day extended-range forecast of East Asian precipitation in early summer npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the Tibetan Plateau in 30-day extended-range forecast of East Asian precipitation in early summer |
| title_full | Role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the Tibetan Plateau in 30-day extended-range forecast of East Asian precipitation in early summer |
| title_fullStr | Role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the Tibetan Plateau in 30-day extended-range forecast of East Asian precipitation in early summer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the Tibetan Plateau in 30-day extended-range forecast of East Asian precipitation in early summer |
| title_short | Role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the Tibetan Plateau in 30-day extended-range forecast of East Asian precipitation in early summer |
| title_sort | role of thermal and dynamical subdaily perturbations over the tibetan plateau in 30 day extended range forecast of east asian precipitation in early summer |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00931-2 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bianhe roleofthermalanddynamicalsubdailyperturbationsoverthetibetanplateauin30dayextendedrangeforecastofeastasianprecipitationinearlysummer AT xinyuhe roleofthermalanddynamicalsubdailyperturbationsoverthetibetanplateauin30dayextendedrangeforecastofeastasianprecipitationinearlysummer AT yiminliu roleofthermalanddynamicalsubdailyperturbationsoverthetibetanplateauin30dayextendedrangeforecastofeastasianprecipitationinearlysummer AT guoxiongwu roleofthermalanddynamicalsubdailyperturbationsoverthetibetanplateauin30dayextendedrangeforecastofeastasianprecipitationinearlysummer AT qingbao roleofthermalanddynamicalsubdailyperturbationsoverthetibetanplateauin30dayextendedrangeforecastofeastasianprecipitationinearlysummer AT wentinghu roleofthermalanddynamicalsubdailyperturbationsoverthetibetanplateauin30dayextendedrangeforecastofeastasianprecipitationinearlysummer AT chensheng roleofthermalanddynamicalsubdailyperturbationsoverthetibetanplateauin30dayextendedrangeforecastofeastasianprecipitationinearlysummer AT shijianfeng roleofthermalanddynamicalsubdailyperturbationsoverthetibetanplateauin30dayextendedrangeforecastofeastasianprecipitationinearlysummer |