Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century
Reliable climate change scenarios are critical for West Africa, whose economy relies mostly on agriculture and, in this regard, multimodel ensembles are believed to provide the most robust climate change information. Toward this end, we analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of four regio...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2012-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Geophysics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/972896 |
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| author | I. Diallo M. B. Sylla F. Giorgi A. T. Gaye M. Camara |
| author_facet | I. Diallo M. B. Sylla F. Giorgi A. T. Gaye M. Camara |
| author_sort | I. Diallo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Reliable climate change scenarios are critical for West Africa, whose economy relies mostly on agriculture and, in this regard, multimodel ensembles are believed to provide the most robust climate change information. Toward this end, we analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by two global climate models (GCMs) (for a total of 4 different GCM-RCM pairs) in simulating present day and future climate over West Africa. The results show that the individual RCM members as well as their ensemble employing the same driving fields exhibit different biases and show mixed results in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation of seasonal temperature and precipitation, indicating a substantial sensitivity of RCMs to regional and local processes. These biases are reduced and GCM simulations improved upon by averaging all four RCM simulations, suggesting that multi-model RCM ensembles based on different driving GCMs help to compensate systematic errors from both the nested and the driving models. This confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for improving robustness of climate change projections. Illustrative examples of such ensemble reveal that the western Sahel undergoes substantial drying in future climate projections mostly due to a decrease in peak monsoon rainfall. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-002cbe481ec84846b03f818d0de4dba5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-885X 1687-8868 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2012-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Geophysics |
| spelling | doaj-art-002cbe481ec84846b03f818d0de4dba52025-08-20T03:55:23ZengWileyInternational Journal of Geophysics1687-885X1687-88682012-01-01201210.1155/2012/972896972896Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st CenturyI. Diallo0M. B. Sylla1F. Giorgi2A. T. Gaye3M. Camara4Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics-Simeon Fongang (LPAF), Polytechnic School, Cheikh Anta Diop University, P.O. Box 5085, Dakar-Fann, Dakar, SenegalEarth System Physics (ESP) Section, International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), 34151 Trieste, ItalyEarth System Physics (ESP) Section, International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), 34151 Trieste, ItalyLaboratory for Atmospheric Physics-Simeon Fongang (LPAF), Polytechnic School, Cheikh Anta Diop University, P.O. Box 5085, Dakar-Fann, Dakar, SenegalDepartment of Physics, UFR of Sciences and Technologies, University of Ziguinchor, 523 Ziguinchor, SenegalReliable climate change scenarios are critical for West Africa, whose economy relies mostly on agriculture and, in this regard, multimodel ensembles are believed to provide the most robust climate change information. Toward this end, we analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by two global climate models (GCMs) (for a total of 4 different GCM-RCM pairs) in simulating present day and future climate over West Africa. The results show that the individual RCM members as well as their ensemble employing the same driving fields exhibit different biases and show mixed results in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation of seasonal temperature and precipitation, indicating a substantial sensitivity of RCMs to regional and local processes. These biases are reduced and GCM simulations improved upon by averaging all four RCM simulations, suggesting that multi-model RCM ensembles based on different driving GCMs help to compensate systematic errors from both the nested and the driving models. This confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for improving robustness of climate change projections. Illustrative examples of such ensemble reveal that the western Sahel undergoes substantial drying in future climate projections mostly due to a decrease in peak monsoon rainfall.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/972896 |
| spellingShingle | I. Diallo M. B. Sylla F. Giorgi A. T. Gaye M. Camara Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century International Journal of Geophysics |
| title | Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century |
| title_full | Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century |
| title_fullStr | Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century |
| title_short | Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century |
| title_sort | multimodel gcm rcm ensemble based projections of temperature and precipitation over west africa for the early 21st century |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/972896 |
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