Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China

Agricultural land in China represents a major source of nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) emissions, and as population growth and technological advancements drive agricultural intensification, these emissions are projected to increase. A thorough understanding of historical trends and futur...

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Main Authors: Miaoling Bu, Weiming Xi, Yu Wang, Guofeng Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-11-01
Series:Agriculture
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/11/2074
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author Miaoling Bu
Weiming Xi
Yu Wang
Guofeng Wang
author_facet Miaoling Bu
Weiming Xi
Yu Wang
Guofeng Wang
author_sort Miaoling Bu
collection DOAJ
description Agricultural land in China represents a major source of nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) emissions, and as population growth and technological advancements drive agricultural intensification, these emissions are projected to increase. A thorough understanding of historical trends and future dynamics of these emissions is critical for formulating effective mitigation strategies and advancing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. This study quantifies N<sub>2</sub>O emissions across 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021, employing the IPCC coefficient method alongside China’s provincial greenhouse gas inventory guidelines. The spatiotemporal evolution of emission intensities was examined, with the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model employed to assess the influence of population, technological development, economic growth, and energy structure. The findings confirm that agricultural land remains the primary source of N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, with significantly higher levels observed in eastern coastal regions compared to western inland areas. Implementing targeted mitigation strategies, such as enhanced agricultural- and manure-management practices and region-specific interventions, is imperative to effectively curb the rising emission trends.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2077-0472
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publishDate 2024-11-01
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spelling doaj-art-b36ca683ccf545039823a4521257aaec2024-11-26T17:43:56ZengMDPI AGAgriculture2077-04722024-11-011411207410.3390/agriculture14112074Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in ChinaMiaoling Bu0Weiming Xi1Yu Wang2Guofeng Wang3Law School, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 140 Wucheng Road, Xiaodian District, Taiyuan 030006, ChinaLaw School, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 140 Wucheng Road, Xiaodian District, Taiyuan 030006, ChinaBusiness School, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, ChinaInstitute of Platform Economics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, ChinaAgricultural land in China represents a major source of nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) emissions, and as population growth and technological advancements drive agricultural intensification, these emissions are projected to increase. A thorough understanding of historical trends and future dynamics of these emissions is critical for formulating effective mitigation strategies and advancing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. This study quantifies N<sub>2</sub>O emissions across 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021, employing the IPCC coefficient method alongside China’s provincial greenhouse gas inventory guidelines. The spatiotemporal evolution of emission intensities was examined, with the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model employed to assess the influence of population, technological development, economic growth, and energy structure. The findings confirm that agricultural land remains the primary source of N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, with significantly higher levels observed in eastern coastal regions compared to western inland areas. Implementing targeted mitigation strategies, such as enhanced agricultural- and manure-management practices and region-specific interventions, is imperative to effectively curb the rising emission trends.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/11/2074nitrous oxide from agricultural sourcesIPCC coefficient methodspatiotemporal evolutionscenario forecasting
spellingShingle Miaoling Bu
Weiming Xi
Yu Wang
Guofeng Wang
Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China
Agriculture
nitrous oxide from agricultural sources
IPCC coefficient method
spatiotemporal evolution
scenario forecasting
title Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China
title_full Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China
title_fullStr Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China
title_full_unstemmed Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China
title_short Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China
title_sort scenario based modeling of agricultural nitrous oxide emissions in china
topic nitrous oxide from agricultural sources
IPCC coefficient method
spatiotemporal evolution
scenario forecasting
url https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/11/2074
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AT weimingxi scenariobasedmodelingofagriculturalnitrousoxideemissionsinchina
AT yuwang scenariobasedmodelingofagriculturalnitrousoxideemissionsinchina
AT guofengwang scenariobasedmodelingofagriculturalnitrousoxideemissionsinchina