Trends and anomalies in the coherence of the Southern Polar Vortex: A 26 year meta-study
Abstract The coherence and annual dissipation of the Southern Polar Vortex (SPV) are examined for anomalous behavior and trends, using data from the past 26 years, on four different levels in the Earth’s atmosphere. In order to quantify the SPV’s coherence in the sense of air masses moving collectiv...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12923-6 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849387844625235968 |
|---|---|
| author | Chantelle Blachut Sanjeeva Balasuriya |
| author_facet | Chantelle Blachut Sanjeeva Balasuriya |
| author_sort | Chantelle Blachut |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The coherence and annual dissipation of the Southern Polar Vortex (SPV) are examined for anomalous behavior and trends, using data from the past 26 years, on four different levels in the Earth’s atmosphere. In order to quantify the SPV’s coherence in the sense of air masses moving collectively, a purely convection-based method which allows for the detection of spatial structures and their coherence is used. Having a quantitative method to define coherence allows for the detection of annual ‘cessation dates’ of the SPV. Trends in the cessation dates and coherence of the SPV at four levels in the atmosphere since 1999 are obtained. Hitherto unreported splitting events of the SPV—including in the most recent year 2024—are shown. Early cessation dates occur in known Sudden Stratospheric Warming years, but also in years in which spatial structures are seen to develop anomalously in the Southern Hemisphere or emanate from the tropics and impinge on the SPV. Consistently late cessation times in 2020–2022 are reported, and potential connections to weather events discussed. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-655cc95ae9bb4bdfa239472fe7ef0618 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-655cc95ae9bb4bdfa239472fe7ef06182025-08-20T03:42:28ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-08-0115111210.1038/s41598-025-12923-6Trends and anomalies in the coherence of the Southern Polar Vortex: A 26 year meta-studyChantelle Blachut0Sanjeeva Balasuriya1School of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, University of AdelaideSchool of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, University of AdelaideAbstract The coherence and annual dissipation of the Southern Polar Vortex (SPV) are examined for anomalous behavior and trends, using data from the past 26 years, on four different levels in the Earth’s atmosphere. In order to quantify the SPV’s coherence in the sense of air masses moving collectively, a purely convection-based method which allows for the detection of spatial structures and their coherence is used. Having a quantitative method to define coherence allows for the detection of annual ‘cessation dates’ of the SPV. Trends in the cessation dates and coherence of the SPV at four levels in the atmosphere since 1999 are obtained. Hitherto unreported splitting events of the SPV—including in the most recent year 2024—are shown. Early cessation dates occur in known Sudden Stratospheric Warming years, but also in years in which spatial structures are seen to develop anomalously in the Southern Hemisphere or emanate from the tropics and impinge on the SPV. Consistently late cessation times in 2020–2022 are reported, and potential connections to weather events discussed.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12923-6Southern Polar VortexDynamical systemsCoherent structuresTransfer operator methods |
| spellingShingle | Chantelle Blachut Sanjeeva Balasuriya Trends and anomalies in the coherence of the Southern Polar Vortex: A 26 year meta-study Scientific Reports Southern Polar Vortex Dynamical systems Coherent structures Transfer operator methods |
| title | Trends and anomalies in the coherence of the Southern Polar Vortex: A 26 year meta-study |
| title_full | Trends and anomalies in the coherence of the Southern Polar Vortex: A 26 year meta-study |
| title_fullStr | Trends and anomalies in the coherence of the Southern Polar Vortex: A 26 year meta-study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends and anomalies in the coherence of the Southern Polar Vortex: A 26 year meta-study |
| title_short | Trends and anomalies in the coherence of the Southern Polar Vortex: A 26 year meta-study |
| title_sort | trends and anomalies in the coherence of the southern polar vortex a 26 year meta study |
| topic | Southern Polar Vortex Dynamical systems Coherent structures Transfer operator methods |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12923-6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chantelleblachut trendsandanomaliesinthecoherenceofthesouthernpolarvortexa26yearmetastudy AT sanjeevabalasuriya trendsandanomaliesinthecoherenceofthesouthernpolarvortexa26yearmetastudy |