Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea‐Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model Perspective
Abstract Antarctic sea ice, which undergoes large seasonal changes and plays a crucial role in the global climate system, showed a gradual increasing trend in its extent from the late 1970s to 2015 but experienced a sharp decline in 2016, followed by record lows in subsequent years. This study inves...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115256 |
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| author | K. Kusahara H. Tatebe |
| author_facet | K. Kusahara H. Tatebe |
| author_sort | K. Kusahara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Antarctic sea ice, which undergoes large seasonal changes and plays a crucial role in the global climate system, showed a gradual increasing trend in its extent from the late 1970s to 2015 but experienced a sharp decline in 2016, followed by record lows in subsequent years. This study investigates the causes of the recent regime shift in Antarctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) using a global sea ice–ocean model with 0.25° resolution forced by atmospheric reanalysis‐based surface boundary conditions. Numerical experiments reveal that thermodynamic boundary conditions, particularly the increased subpolar sea surface temperatures (SSTs) north of the sea‐ice edge, are the dominant drivers of Antarctic sea‐ice decline. Additionally, wind stress partly contributes to the variability in summer SIE. These findings highlight that SST warming near the sea‐ice edge, resulting from atmosphere–ocean interactions under ongoing atmospheric warming, plays a key role in the recent decline in Antarctic SIE. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4583115a8b0c4f16a7043d6243dbcc9c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-4583115a8b0c4f16a7043d6243dbcc9c2025-08-20T04:02:27ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-08-015215n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115256Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea‐Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model PerspectiveK. Kusahara0H. Tatebe1Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Yokohama JapanJapan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Yokohama JapanAbstract Antarctic sea ice, which undergoes large seasonal changes and plays a crucial role in the global climate system, showed a gradual increasing trend in its extent from the late 1970s to 2015 but experienced a sharp decline in 2016, followed by record lows in subsequent years. This study investigates the causes of the recent regime shift in Antarctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) using a global sea ice–ocean model with 0.25° resolution forced by atmospheric reanalysis‐based surface boundary conditions. Numerical experiments reveal that thermodynamic boundary conditions, particularly the increased subpolar sea surface temperatures (SSTs) north of the sea‐ice edge, are the dominant drivers of Antarctic sea‐ice decline. Additionally, wind stress partly contributes to the variability in summer SIE. These findings highlight that SST warming near the sea‐ice edge, resulting from atmosphere–ocean interactions under ongoing atmospheric warming, plays a key role in the recent decline in Antarctic SIE.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115256 |
| spellingShingle | K. Kusahara H. Tatebe Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea‐Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model Perspective Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea‐Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model Perspective |
| title_full | Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea‐Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model Perspective |
| title_fullStr | Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea‐Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model Perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea‐Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model Perspective |
| title_short | Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea‐Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model Perspective |
| title_sort | causes of the abrupt and sustained 2016 2023 antarctic sea ice decline a sea ice ocean model perspective |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115256 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kkusahara causesoftheabruptandsustained20162023antarcticseaicedeclineaseaiceoceanmodelperspective AT htatebe causesoftheabruptandsustained20162023antarcticseaicedeclineaseaiceoceanmodelperspective |