Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts
Abstract El Niño is generally phase‐locked to the boreal winter but displays significant variability in its onset timing, contributing to its diverse climate impacts. The physical mechanisms driving this variability remain inadequately understood. This study demonstrates that onset of El Niño events...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113668 |
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| author | Yu Liu Wenjun Zhang Feng Jiang Han‐Ching Chen Fei‐Fei Jin Suqiong Hu |
| author_facet | Yu Liu Wenjun Zhang Feng Jiang Han‐Ching Chen Fei‐Fei Jin Suqiong Hu |
| author_sort | Yu Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract El Niño is generally phase‐locked to the boreal winter but displays significant variability in its onset timing, contributing to its diverse climate impacts. The physical mechanisms driving this variability remain inadequately understood. This study demonstrates that onset of El Niño events can occur over a broad range of months from March to September, with its onset timing closely linked to the precondition of oceanic recharged state and the occurrence of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the preceding spring. A stronger recharged state and increased frequency of WWBs promote earlier onset by efficiently transporting warm water to the equatorial eastern Pacific. Supporting evidence from MIROC6 simulations and a conceptual model underscores the crucial roles of both the recharged state and WWBs in determining the timing of El Niño onset. These results enhance our understanding of El Niño dynamics and hold important implications for seasonal climate prediction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-33e4a2557d0749b8ab3e9aa651b9dff3 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-33e4a2557d0749b8ab3e9aa651b9dff32025-08-20T03:10:57ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01526n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113668Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind BurstsYu Liu0Wenjun Zhang1Feng Jiang2Han‐Ching Chen3Fei‐Fei Jin4Suqiong Hu5CIC‐FEMD/KLME State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaCIC‐FEMD/KLME State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaLamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USACIC‐FEMD/KLME State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawai'i at Manoa Honolulu HI USANicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USAAbstract El Niño is generally phase‐locked to the boreal winter but displays significant variability in its onset timing, contributing to its diverse climate impacts. The physical mechanisms driving this variability remain inadequately understood. This study demonstrates that onset of El Niño events can occur over a broad range of months from March to September, with its onset timing closely linked to the precondition of oceanic recharged state and the occurrence of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the preceding spring. A stronger recharged state and increased frequency of WWBs promote earlier onset by efficiently transporting warm water to the equatorial eastern Pacific. Supporting evidence from MIROC6 simulations and a conceptual model underscores the crucial roles of both the recharged state and WWBs in determining the timing of El Niño onset. These results enhance our understanding of El Niño dynamics and hold important implications for seasonal climate prediction.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113668ENSO diversityEl Nino onset timingwesterly wind burstsocean heat content |
| spellingShingle | Yu Liu Wenjun Zhang Feng Jiang Han‐Ching Chen Fei‐Fei Jin Suqiong Hu Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts Geophysical Research Letters ENSO diversity El Nino onset timing westerly wind bursts ocean heat content |
| title | Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts |
| title_full | Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts |
| title_fullStr | Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts |
| title_short | Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts |
| title_sort | diverse timing of el nino onset linked to preconditioned recharge state and occurrence of westerly wind bursts |
| topic | ENSO diversity El Nino onset timing westerly wind bursts ocean heat content |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113668 |
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