Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts

Abstract El Niño is generally phase‐locked to the boreal winter but displays significant variability in its onset timing, contributing to its diverse climate impacts. The physical mechanisms driving this variability remain inadequately understood. This study demonstrates that onset of El Niño events...

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Main Authors: Yu Liu, Wenjun Zhang, Feng Jiang, Han‐Ching Chen, Fei‐Fei Jin, Suqiong Hu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-03-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113668
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author Yu Liu
Wenjun Zhang
Feng Jiang
Han‐Ching Chen
Fei‐Fei Jin
Suqiong Hu
author_facet Yu Liu
Wenjun Zhang
Feng Jiang
Han‐Ching Chen
Fei‐Fei Jin
Suqiong Hu
author_sort Yu Liu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract El Niño is generally phase‐locked to the boreal winter but displays significant variability in its onset timing, contributing to its diverse climate impacts. The physical mechanisms driving this variability remain inadequately understood. This study demonstrates that onset of El Niño events can occur over a broad range of months from March to September, with its onset timing closely linked to the precondition of oceanic recharged state and the occurrence of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the preceding spring. A stronger recharged state and increased frequency of WWBs promote earlier onset by efficiently transporting warm water to the equatorial eastern Pacific. Supporting evidence from MIROC6 simulations and a conceptual model underscores the crucial roles of both the recharged state and WWBs in determining the timing of El Niño onset. These results enhance our understanding of El Niño dynamics and hold important implications for seasonal climate prediction.
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publishDate 2025-03-01
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series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-33e4a2557d0749b8ab3e9aa651b9dff32025-08-20T03:10:57ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01526n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113668Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind BurstsYu Liu0Wenjun Zhang1Feng Jiang2Han‐Ching Chen3Fei‐Fei Jin4Suqiong Hu5CIC‐FEMD/KLME State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaCIC‐FEMD/KLME State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaLamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USACIC‐FEMD/KLME State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawai'i at Manoa Honolulu HI USANicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USAAbstract El Niño is generally phase‐locked to the boreal winter but displays significant variability in its onset timing, contributing to its diverse climate impacts. The physical mechanisms driving this variability remain inadequately understood. This study demonstrates that onset of El Niño events can occur over a broad range of months from March to September, with its onset timing closely linked to the precondition of oceanic recharged state and the occurrence of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the preceding spring. A stronger recharged state and increased frequency of WWBs promote earlier onset by efficiently transporting warm water to the equatorial eastern Pacific. Supporting evidence from MIROC6 simulations and a conceptual model underscores the crucial roles of both the recharged state and WWBs in determining the timing of El Niño onset. These results enhance our understanding of El Niño dynamics and hold important implications for seasonal climate prediction.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113668ENSO diversityEl Nino onset timingwesterly wind burstsocean heat content
spellingShingle Yu Liu
Wenjun Zhang
Feng Jiang
Han‐Ching Chen
Fei‐Fei Jin
Suqiong Hu
Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts
Geophysical Research Letters
ENSO diversity
El Nino onset timing
westerly wind bursts
ocean heat content
title Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts
title_full Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts
title_fullStr Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts
title_full_unstemmed Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts
title_short Diverse Timing of El Niño Onset Linked to Preconditioned Recharge State and Occurrence of Westerly Wind Bursts
title_sort diverse timing of el nino onset linked to preconditioned recharge state and occurrence of westerly wind bursts
topic ENSO diversity
El Nino onset timing
westerly wind bursts
ocean heat content
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113668
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AT hanchingchen diversetimingofelninoonsetlinkedtopreconditionedrechargestateandoccurrenceofwesterlywindbursts
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