Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare
Abstract The solar X‐ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that flare, it is not directly clear how long those bla...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002754 |
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| author | Jeffrey W. Reep Will T. Barnes |
| author_facet | Jeffrey W. Reep Will T. Barnes |
| author_sort | Jeffrey W. Reep |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The solar X‐ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that flare, it is not directly clear how long those blackouts can persist. Using a random forest regression model trained on data taken from X‐ray light curves, we have developed a direct forecasting method that predicts how long the event will remain above background levels. We test this on a large collection of flares observed with GOES‐15, and show that it generally outperforms simple linear regression, giving a median error of less than 2 min for the approximate end time of a flare. This random forest model is computationally light enough to be performed in real time, allowing for the prediction to be made during the course of a flare. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-077219aa02cc47a08624e0103ba9019c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-077219aa02cc47a08624e0103ba9019c2025-01-14T16:30:34ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902021-10-011910n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002754Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar FlareJeffrey W. Reep0Will T. Barnes1Space Science Division US Naval Research Laboratory Washington DC USANational Research Council Research Associate Residing at the Naval Research Laboratory Washington DC USAAbstract The solar X‐ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that flare, it is not directly clear how long those blackouts can persist. Using a random forest regression model trained on data taken from X‐ray light curves, we have developed a direct forecasting method that predicts how long the event will remain above background levels. We test this on a large collection of flares observed with GOES‐15, and show that it generally outperforms simple linear regression, giving a median error of less than 2 min for the approximate end time of a flare. This random forest model is computationally light enough to be performed in real time, allowing for the prediction to be made during the course of a flare.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002754solar flaresforecasting |
| spellingShingle | Jeffrey W. Reep Will T. Barnes Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare Space Weather solar flares forecasting |
| title | Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare |
| title_full | Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare |
| title_short | Forecasting the Remaining Duration of an Ongoing Solar Flare |
| title_sort | forecasting the remaining duration of an ongoing solar flare |
| topic | solar flares forecasting |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002754 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jeffreywreep forecastingtheremainingdurationofanongoingsolarflare AT willtbarnes forecastingtheremainingdurationofanongoingsolarflare |